交通基础设施能否促进消费市场发展——来自中国高铁的经验证据  

Can Transportation Infrastructure Promote Consumption Market Development?——Evidence from China’s High-Speed Rail Projects

作　　者：房景 姚树洁[2,3] 冯根福 安磊[2] Fang Jing;Yao Shujie;Feng Genfu;An Lei(School of Economics,Hangzhou Normal University,Hangzhou 311121,China;School of Economics and Business Administration,Chongqing University,Chongqing 400000,China;Li Anmin Institute of Economic Research,Liaoning University,Shenyang 110036,China;School of Economics and Finance,Xi'an Jiaotong University,Xi'an 710049,China)

机构地区：[1]杭州师范大学经济学院,311121 [2]重庆大学经济与工商管理学院,400000 [3]辽宁大学李安民经济研究院,110036 [4]西安交通大学经济与金融学院,710049

出　　处：《南开经济研究》2023年第9期55-74,共20页Nankai Economic Studies

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“习近平总书记关于扶贫工作的重要论述的理论和实证基础及精准扶贫效果研究”(18ZDA005);国家自然科学基金青年项目“新型城镇化进程中户籍改革的劳动力区域再配置效应:动力机制、经济影响与政策优化研究”(72203028);浙江省软科学项目“基础设施均衡化促进‘扩中’‘提低’改革研究:理论机制与实证检验”(2023C35031)的资助。

摘　　要：培育调动超大规模国内市场资源,促进国内消费需求增加,是建设“双循环”新发展格局的重要一环。作为一项典型政府生产性支出,高铁建设可能会对消费市场发展产生挤入或挤出两种方向的作用。本文从典型居民消费需求出发,建立两城市内贸框架,推导高铁影响消费市场发展的理论模型,从居民闲暇时间配置微观视角和市场一体化宏观视角,提出高铁影响消费市场发展的两种理论机制。基于理论模型,本文使用2007年至2019年中国285个地级及以上城市面板数据建立双重差分模型,实证检验高铁能否促进消费市场发展并分析其作用机制。本文研究结果表明,高铁可以显著激发外围城市的消费市场发展,但对中心城市没有产生显著影响;机制检验结果显示,从微观个体视角和宏观市场总体视角来看,高铁产生积极影响的作用机制主要来自于影响居民闲暇时间配置和减轻商品市场分割程度。上述研究发现具有重要的政策含义,也即推动高铁建设,有利于挖掘调动外围城市消费市场潜力,推动构建“双循环”新发展格局,促进中国经济可持续高质量发展。The creation of a large internal market and the increase in demand for domestic con-sumption are an important element in the construction of the new dual-circulation development pattern.As a typical government production expenditure,the construction of high-speed rail(HSR)may have a crowding-in or crowding-out effect on the development of the consumer market.Specifically,the two crowding-in mechanisms are that HSR may promote the development of the consumer market by boosting tourism and facilitating the reduction of consumer market segmentation.This paper uses a large panel data set comprising 285 cities at the prefecture level from 2007 to 2019 to study the impact of HSR on consumption market development and discuss the mechanism of HSR’s effect.In the theoretical analysis section,a two-city internal trade model is established to deducing the urban aggregate demand function by deriving typical residents'consumption behavior.Then the empirical analyses set a difference-in-difference model to study the impacts of HSR.The main findings of this paper are as follows:firstly,HSR can significantly increase consumption markets in the periphery cities,but not in the core ones;secondly,the results of the mechanism test show that HSR’s effect mainly comes from changing residents’leisure time allocation and reducing market segmentation.This paper further conducts a variety of robustness testing methods,including heterogeneity treatment effects,parallel trend tests,instrumental variables,placebo tests,randomization of HSR operation,and the uses of the space-time compression variable and the economic gravity variable.The above findings suggest that further development of HSR is amicable for expanding consumer markets as well as highlevel development in China.

关 键 词：高铁 消费市场 双重差分 双循环 

分 类 号：F724[经济管理—产业经济] F532