中国出口内涵要素结构与外贸高质量发展路径  

The Factor Structure Embodied in China’s Exports and Foreign Trade High-Quality Development Path

作　　者：马涛[1,2] 王楠倩 Ma Tao;Wang Nanqian(Institute of World Economics and Politics,Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 100732,China;Graduate School,University of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Beijing 102488,China)

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所 [2]中国社会科学院大学,100732 [3]中国社会科学院大学研究生院,102488

出　　处：《南开经济研究》2023年第9期114-136,共23页Nankai Economic Studies

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(22JJD790009)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：本文借助多国投入产出模型构建了多生产要素视角下分解增加值贸易生产要素结构的单国模型。运用该模型将出口总值分解为出口中国内增加值、出口中进口国增加值和出口中第三(其他)国增加值,分别对三类出口增加值进行要素结构解析,测算出资本和三种劳动力要素对出口贸易的贡献,最后用结构分解分析法对各要素在增加值贸易中的贡献变动进行影响因素分析。结果显示:在研究期间,中国单位出口增加值中资本和高技能劳动力的贡献总体呈上升趋势,高技能劳动力扩大了各行业创造增加值的差距。在此期间,出口规模正效应影响着多数行业的三类增加值;入世后,多数制造业的三类增加值受到出口中第三(其他)国增加值变动负效应和出口中进口国增加值变动正效应的影响,2008年国际金融危机后,则转变为受出口中第三(其他)国增加值变动正效应和出口规模负效应的影响,且多数行业的三类增加值受要素质量负效应的影响减弱。在新发展阶段,中国贸易高质量发展路径的关键在于知识密集型服务业、知识密集型制造业、资本密集型服务业、公共服务业四个产业和高技能劳动力、资本两种生产要素。通过提升上述产业资本和高技能劳动力的投入数量和质量,攀升价值链路径融入国际循环,提升中国贸易增长韧性。Using multi-country input-output model,we construct a single country model that decomposes factor structure embodied in trade in value added from the perspective of multiplefactors.This paper decomposed China’s gross exports into domestic value added(DVA for short),value added from the direct importer used in the production of gross exports(MVA for short)and value added from other countries used in the production of gross exports(OVA for short),studied the factor structure of three types of export in value added respectively,calculated the contribution of four factors to the trade in value added,finally analyzed the influencing factors on contribution to factors of trade in value added by SDA.The results showed that the overall contribution of capital and high-skilled labor on Chinese unit export in value added was on the rise,high-skilled labor expanded the gap in value added created by various industries during the study period.The effect of export scale affectedthe three types value added of most industries positively during the whole period.After joining the WTO,China’s most manufacturing industries were affected by the value added from other countriesnegative effect and the value added from the direct importer positive effect.After the financial crisis,that were affected by the value added from other countries effect and the export scale negative effect,and the negative impact of factor quality on most industries has been decreased.In the new stage of development,the quality upgrading area of China's foreign trade will include knowledgeintensive services,knowledge-intensive manufacturing industries,capital-intensive services,public services industries and high-skilled labor,capital factors,especially increasing the input quantity and quality of capital and high-skilled labor in above industrial to promote the trade growth tenacity.

关 键 词：增加值贸易 要素结构 高质量发展 国际循环 结构分解分析 

分 类 号：F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易]