地方官员变更、政策不确定性与住宅用地出让价格  

Local Political Turnover,Policy Uncertainty,and Residential Land Leasing Prices

作　　者：杨超[1] 李少勋 孙聪 凌爱凡 YANG Chao;LI Shao-xun;SUN Cong;LING Ai-fan

机构地区：[1]江西财经大学金融学院 [2]江西财经大学工商管理学院 [3]上海外国语大学国际金融贸易学院

出　　处：《中央财经大学学报》2023年第10期111-128,共18页Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“政治关系对地价、房价的影响机制研究”(项目编号:71703062);中央高校基本科研业务费专项。

摘　　要：土地财政因对土地出让依赖过多而备受关注,并认为是推高房价的重要原因。而地方主政官员变更可能会对辖区内的土地出让产生影响。为了检验该问题,本文基于2008—2016年我国地级市长和市委书记数据,结合微观住宅用地交易数据,研究官员变更对住宅用地出让价格的影响。实证研究发现:(1)官员变更降低了辖区内的住宅用地出让价格;(2)官员异地调动、非正常变更和长期任职的官员变更对当期土地价格的负向影响更为显著,而市场化水平将弱化其负向影响;(3)地方官员上任后将推高土地出让价格,而且经济增长压力对其正向影响更为明显。本文的研究结果表明地方官员的变更会对辖区内住宅用地市场产生显著影响,为理解我国的土地市场价格波动提供了一个新视角。Land finance has attracted much attention due to its excessive reliance on land sales,which is also an important reason for pushing up housing prices.The political turnover may have an impact on the land transactions.Based on micro data of residential land transactions and local officials'turnover from 2008 to 2016 in China,this paper studies impact of political turnover on the residential land price.We find that the turnovers of mayor and secretary decrease the residential land price.Further analysis show that the transfers of officials to other cities,irregular turnovers and outgoing officials with longer tenure have greater negative impact on residential land prices,but the marketization can weaken the negative impact.We also find that the land price will increase after the new officials take office,and the positive effect are more significant under greater economic growth pressure.The results show that the political turnover has a significant impact on the residential land market,which provides a new perspective to understand our land market.

关 键 词：官员变更 政策不确定性 土地价格 

分 类 号：F061.6[经济管理—政治经济学] F062.1