上海市人口死亡率变化与城市发展水平的动态关系研究  

Dynamic relationship between changes of mortality rate and urban development level in Shanghai

作　　者：晋珊 方博[1] 蔡任之[1] 钱耐思[1] 虞慧婷[1] 乔佳颖 陈蕾 王春芳[1] JIN Shan;FANG Bo;CAI Renzhi;QIAN Naisi;YU Huiting;QIAO Jiaying;CHEN Lei;WANG Chunfang(Department of Vital Statistics,Shanghai Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Shanghai 200336,China)

机构地区：[1]上海市疾病预防控制中心生命统计科,上海200336

出　　处：《上海预防医学》2023年第7期654-659,共6页Shanghai Journal of Preventive Medicine

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(31971485);上海市卫生健康委员会卫生行业临床研究专项项目(20214Y0492)。

摘　　要：【目的】分析上海市城市发展与人口死亡率之间的动态响应关系,预测人口死亡率变化趋势。【方法】利用1978—2017年上海市人口死亡率(TMR)、国内生产总值(GDP)及社会人口发展指数(SDI)等数据,构建向量自回归(VAR)模型,评估城市发展对人口死亡率的影响程度。【结果】VAR(2)模型拟合的R2=0.92。GDP对人口死亡水平改善的短期效应为负,长期效应为正;SDI无论短期还是长期均为负效应。到第10年,GDP和SDI对TMR变化的贡献率分别为10.61%和27.25%。模型预测显示,至2030年上海人口死亡率为9.17‰。【结论】长期的经济增长可以有效促进人口死亡率下降,但在大力发展经济的同时,不可忽视人口发展“高水平时代”下少子老龄化趋势对人口健康的不利影响。[Objective]To analyze the dynamic response relationship between urban development and mortality rate in Shanghai,and to predict the trend of mortality rate changes.[Methods]By analyzing the total mortality rate(TMR),gross domestic product(GDP)and sociodemographic index(SDI)in Shanghai from 1978 to 2017,a vector autoregressive(VAR)model was constructed to evaluate the impact of urban development on the mortality rate.[Results]The fitted R2 of the VAR model was 0.92.The short-term effect of GDP on the improvement of death level was negative,while the long-term effect was positive,and the SDI was negative regardless of the short-term and long-term effects.By the tenth year,GDP and SDI contributed 10.61%and 27.25%to TMR changes,respectively.The model predicted that the mortality rate in Shanghai would be 9.17 per thousand by 2030.[Conclusion]Long-term economic growth can effectively promote a decline in population mortality.However,as the economy develops vigorously,the adverse effects of declining birth rates and population aging on population health during the era of high-level population development should not be ignored.

关 键 词：死亡率 社会人口指数 国内生产总值 向量自回归模型 动态关系 

分 类 号：R1[医药卫生—公共卫生与预防医学] R339.39