基于时间序列的朝阳市生猪价格短期预测研究  

Research on short-term forecasting of the price of pigs in Chaoyang City based on time series

作　　者：王艳华[1] WANG Yanhua(Department of Mathematics and Computer Science,Chaoyang Teachers College,Chaoyang Liaoning 122000)

机构地区：[1]朝阳师范高等专科学校数学计算机系,辽宁朝阳122000

出　　处：《辽宁师专学报（自然科学版）》2023年第3期10-13,34,共5页Journal of Liaoning Normal College(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：2019年辽宁省教育厅项目(JYT19L03)。

摘　　要：为了获取更多利润,降低价格波动带来的风险,对朝阳市生猪价格进行基于时间序列的短期预测研究.根据辽宁省朝阳市某养猪场提供的2020~2022年3种生猪日销售价格,首先利用Excel对数据进行处理,以周为基本单位,把每周的平均价格作为周价格;其次,根据外三元猪价格中前100周的价格,分别采用时间序列预测法中的一次移动平均预测法、一次指数平滑预测法和三次指数平滑预测法来预测后57周的价格,通过与实际价格的对比可知,采用三次指数平滑预测法预测的误差最小,由此用该预测法来预测内三元猪和土杂猪后57周的价格;最后,利用Matlab计算土杂猪、内三元猪的预测值,结果显示二者的预测误差分别为0.386、0.604,并据此绘制价格变化趋势的图像,为养猪场预测生猪价格提供理论依据.In order to obtain more profits and reduce the risk caused by price fluctuations,a short-term forecasting study based on time series was conducted on the price of pigs in Chaoyang City.According to the daily sales price of three kinds of pigs from 2020 to 2022 provided by a pig farm in Chaoyang City,Liaoning Province,firstly,Excel was used to process the data,taking the weekly average price as the weekly price with weekly as the basic unit.Secondly,based on the price of the imported three bred pigs in the first 100 weeks,the price of the next 57 weeks was predicted respectively by using one-time moving average prediction method,single exponen-tial smoothing prediction method and triple exponential smoothing forecast in the time series pre-diction method.By comparing with the actual price,it was concluded that the prediction error of the triple exponential smoothing prediction method was the smallest.Therefore,this method was used to predict the price of native three-bred pigs and local hybrid pigs in the next 57 weeks.Finally,Matlab was used to calculate the predicted values of the local hybrid pigs and the native three-bred pigs,and the results showed that the prediction errors of the two were 0.386 and 0.604 respectively,and the image of the price change trend was drawn accordingly to provide a theoretical basis for pig farms to predict the price of live pigs.

关 键 词：生猪价格 时间序列 简单一次移动平均预测法 一次指数平滑预测法 三次指数平滑预测 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F323.7