东海北部三疣梭子蟹资源评估与管理决策分析  

Stock Assessment and Management Decision Analysis of Portunus trituberculatus Inhabiting Northern East China Sea

作　　者：刘雅 王晶 栗小东 王迎宾 Liu Ya;Wang Jing;Li Xiaodong;Wang Yingbin(School of Fisheries,Zhejiang Ocean University,Zhoushan 316022,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江海洋大学水产学院,浙江舟山316022

出　　处：《中国海洋大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第11期55-64,共10页Periodical of Ocean University of China

基　　金：国家重点研究发展计划项目(2019YFD0901304);浙江省基础公益计划项目(LGN21C190009);舟山市科技计划项目(2022C41003)资助。

摘　　要：三疣梭子蟹(Portunus trituberculatus)是中国东海北部海域重要的经济蟹类,对三疣梭子蟹资源开展评估是其可持续利用的基础。本文运用基于贝叶斯方法的Schaefer剩余产量模型,对东海北部海域的三疣梭子蟹资源进行评估,确定了当前三疣梭子蟹资源的开发利用状态,估算了在不同收获率水平下未来10年三疣梭子蟹的生物量和年总可捕捞量,分析了管理策略实施后三疣梭子蟹资源崩溃的风险。研究显示,在基准方案和敏感性分析方案下模型参数预测值以及生物学参考点估计值比较相近。使用两种方案估算得到的最大可持续产量(MSY)均约为24×104t, MSY对应的生物量BMSY均约为252×104t。在基准方案下,MSY对应的捕捞死亡系数FMSY为0.096;在敏感性分析方案下,MSY对应的捕捞死系数FMSY为0.097。在2001—2020年间,捕捞死亡系数均低于FMSY,且生物量基本在BMSY水平之上,表明近年来三疣梭子蟹未出现过度捕捞的情况。决策分析和风险分析表明,为使三疣梭子蟹资源可持续利用,将收获率设定在0.04左右是较合理的捕捞方案。Portunus trituberculatus is an important economic crab species inhabiting northern East China Sea,and the assessment of its stock is the basis for its sustainable utilization.The Schaefer surplus production model based on Bayesian approach was used in this study to evaluate the resources of P.trituberculatus in northern East China Sea.At the same time,the current development and utilization status of P.trituberculatus resources were determined,and the biomass and annual total catch of P.trituberculatus under different harvest rates in the next 10 years were estimated.The risk of resource collapse of P.trituberculatus after the implementation of management strategy was analyzed.The results showed that the predicted values of model parameters and the estimated values of biological reference points were similar between the base scenario and sensitivity analysis scenario.The maximum sustainable yield(MSY)estimated using both scenarios was about 24×104 t,and the biomass corresponding to MSY B MSY was about 252×104 t.The fishing mortality coefficient corresponding to MSY F MSY is 0.096 for the base scenario and 0.097 for the sensitivity analysis scenario.From 2001 to 2020,the fishing mortality coefficients were all below and the biomass was largely above the level of B MSY,indicating that P.trituberculatus had not been overfished in recent years.The decision analysis and risk analysis indicated that setting the harvest rate at around 0.04 is a more reasonable scenario for the sustainable use of P.trituberculatus resources.

关 键 词：三疣梭子蟹 贝叶斯方法 剩余产量模型 管理策略 东海北部 渔业资源 

分 类 号：S932.5[农业科学—渔业资源]