大型储罐腐蚀剩余寿命预测方法研究及对比  

Research and Comparison of Corrosion Residual Life Prediction Methods for Large Storage Tanks

作　　者：张华龙 ZHANG Hua-long(Zhejiang Zhe Neng Oil&New Energy Co.,Ltd.Hangzhou 310000,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江浙能石油新能源有限公司,浙江杭州310000

出　　处：《全面腐蚀控制》2023年第9期116-118,共3页Total Corrosion Control

摘　　要：为避免因腐蚀作用引发的储罐泄漏事故,在梳理极值分布法、折线替代法和常规方法计算流程的基础上,通过实例验证不同方法的计算结果和适用范围。结果显示,罐顶板的腐蚀深度远小于罐底圈板和罐底中幅板,罐底中幅板中有20%腐蚀深度2~3mm的点,说明中幅板的腐蚀情况最为严重;极值分布法、折线替代法和常规方法下的储罐剩余寿命分别为13.9a、13a和33a,预测可使用寿命分别为34.75a、33a和60.58a;极值分布法的保守程度适中,且可用更少的检测数据完成极值分布拟合,该方法可以作为剩余寿命预测的有效手段。研究结果可为储罐腐蚀泄漏失效的预防提供实际参考。In order to avoid tank leakage accidents caused by corrosion,the calculation flow of extreme value distribution method,broken line replacement method and conventional method was reviewed,and the calculation results and application range of different methods were verified by examples.The results show that the corrosion depth of the top plate is much less than that of the bottom ring plate and the middle plate of the bottom,and 20%of the corrosion depth of the middle plate is 2~3mm,indicating that the corrosion of the middle plate is the most serious.The remaining life of storage tank under extreme value distribution method,broken line replacement method and conventional method is 13.9a,13a and 33a respectively,and the predicted service life is 34.75a,33a and 60.58a respectively.The extreme value distribution method has a moderate conservative degree and can be used to fit the extreme value distribution with less detection data,so it can be used as an effective method for residual life prediction.The research results can provide practical reference for the prevention of corrosion leakage failure of storage tank.

关 键 词：储罐 剩余寿命 极值分布法 折线替代法 概率分布 

分 类 号：TE832[石油与天然气工程—油气储运工程]