利用时空相关性的海岛长期风速序列估计方法  

Long-term Wind Speed Series Estimation Method for Islands Using Spatio-temporal Correlation

作　　者：李宏仲 刘国栋 米阳 LI Hongzhong;LIU Guodong;MI Yang(College of Electrical Engineering,Shanghai University of Electric Power,Shanghai 200090,China)

机构地区：[1]上海电力大学电气工程学院,上海200090

出　　处：《高电压技术》2023年第8期3185-3194,共10页High Voltage Engineering

基　　金：国家重点研发计划(2018YFB1503001)。

摘　　要：丰富的历史风速数据是开展海岛微电网规划工作的前提。为此,针对待规划海岛无历史风速数据的问题,提出了一种利用周边海岛风速时空相关性估计目标海岛长期风速序列的方法。首先,结合滑动窗和云模型,自适应划分周边海岛风速序列的时序区间;其次,根据各时序区间内风速云模型数字特征的余弦相似度,匹配周边海岛各分段风速序列间的相似性转移关系(similarity transfer relationship,STR);最后,考虑STR与海岛空间位置关系,以权重表示各STR对目标海岛风速序列估计的影响,进而依据各STR及其权重估计目标海岛的长期风速序列。研究结果表明:相较于利用皮尔逊相关系数(Pearson correlation coefficient,PCC)计算各天风速序列间的相关性,进而估计海岛长期风速序列的方法,使用所提方法得到的估计结果与实际序列间的平均绝对误差、均方根误差和PCC分别约改善了7.31%、17.98%和0.46%,所提方法能够实现较高准确度的海岛长期风速序列估计。论文研究可为历史风速数据缺失情况下开展海岛风速预测工作提供参考。Adequate historical wind speed data is a prerequisite for island microgrid planning.Therefore,to address the problem of lack of historical wind speed data of the island to be planned,a method is proposed to estimate the long-term wind speed series of the target island using the spatio-temporal correlation of wind speeds of surrounding islands.Firstly,the time series intervals of the wind speed series of the surrounding islands are divided adaptively by utilizing the sliding window and the cloud model.Secondly,the similarity transfer relationships(STRs)between the wind speed series of each segment of the surrounding islands are matched according to the cosine similarity of the numerical features of the wind speed cloud model in each time series interval.Finally,considering the STR and the spatial location of the islands,the in-fluence of each STR on estimating the wind speed series of the target island is expressed in terms of weights.The long-term wind speed series of the target island are estimated based on each STR and its weight subsequently.The results show that,compared with the method of using Pearson correlation coefficient(PCC)to calculate the correlation between the wind speed series of each day and estimate the long-term wind speed series of the island,the mean absolute error,the root mean squared error and the PCC between the estimated results obtained by the proposed method and the actual series are improved by about 7.31%,17.98%,and 0.46%,respectively.The proposed method can achieve high accuracy in esti-mating the long-term wind speed series of islands.The paper can provide a reference for the wind speed prediction of islands in the absence of historical wind speed data.

关 键 词：海岛微电网 时空相关性 风速估计 云模型 自适应划分 滑动窗 余弦相似度 

分 类 号：TM614[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]