Joint Return Value Estimation of Significant Wave Heights and Wind Speeds with Bivariate Copulas  

作　　者：TAO Shanshan DONG Sheng LIN Yifan GUEDES SOARES Carlos 

机构地区：[1]College of Engineering,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,China [2]Huadian Heavy Industries Co.,Ltd.,Beijing 100070,China [3]Instituto Superior Técnico,Universidade de Lisboa,Lisboa 1049-001,Portugal

出　　处：《Journal of Ocean University of China》2023年第5期1181-1192,共12页中国海洋大学学报（英文版）

基　　金：the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.52171284)。

摘　　要：The joint design criteria of significant wave heights and wind speeds are quite important for the structural reliability of fixed offshore platforms.However,the design method that regards different ocean environmental variables as independent is conservative.In the present study,we introduce a bivariate sample consisting of the maximum wave heights and concomitant wind speeds of the threshold by using the peak-over-threshold and declustering methods.After selecting the appropriate bivariate copulas and univariate distributions and blocking the sample into years,the bivariate compound distribution of annual extreme wave heights and concomitant wind speeds is constructed.Two joint design criteria,namely,the joint probability density method and the conditional probability method,are applied to obtain the joint return values of significant wave heights and wind speeds.Results show that(28.5±0.5)m s^(-1)is the frequently obtained wind speed based on the Atlantic dataset,and these joint design values are more appropriate than those calculated by univariate analysis in the fatigue design.

关 键 词：joint design wave height wind speed compound distribution COPULA 

分 类 号：P75[天文地球—海洋科学]