考虑战略实现干扰和风险双层关联的项目组合风险应对策略选择模型  

A portfolio risk response strategies selection model considering interference of strategy realization and two-level correlation of risks

作　　者：张旭 白思俊[1] 王宗韩 郭云涛[1] ZHANG Xu;BAI Si-juny WANG Zong-han;GUO Yun-tao(School of Management,Northwestern Polytechnical University,Xi’an 710072,China)

机构地区：[1]西北工业大学管理学院,西安710072

出　　处：《控制与决策》2023年第7期1997-2008,共12页Control and Decision

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71971173);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(3102020JC02).

摘　　要：项目组合受项目组合风险影响无法有效支撑企业战略实现,企业需采取合适的风险应对策略以保证项目组合成功,但目前缺少项目组合风险应对策略选择相关方法.基于此,首先结合信息熵和球形模糊集分析并测度风险对战略实现的干扰程度;然后使用网页链接分析方法和决策实验与评价实验室方法对项目组合中双层风险间关联强度进行分析测度;接着根据上述过程确定风险优先级,引用组合心理账户和后悔理论建立以决策者综合效用值最大化的项目组合风险应对决策模型;最后通过案例分析验证所提出方法的有效性和实用性.结果表明:1)风险对战略实现干扰程度以及风险间关联关系对应对策略选择均有影响;2)不同应对预算下,风险对战略实现干扰权重变化对应对决策的影响程度不同;3)较少关注风险对战略实现干扰的决策者,倾向选择能更多应对关联较强风险的策略集;更多注重风险对战略实现干扰的决策者,倾向选择能更多应对项目组合层级风险的策略集.Due to the influence of project portfolio risks,project portfolios can not effectively support the realization of enterprise strategies.Therefore,enterprises need to adopt appropriate risk response strategies to ensure the project portfolio success,but there are few methods to select project portfolio risk response strategies at present.Based on this,the paper firstly analyzes and measures the interference degree of risks to the implementation of strategies by combining the information entropy and the spherical fuzzy set(SFS).Secondly,the stochastic approach for link-structure analysis(SALSA)and the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory(DEMATEL)are used to analyze and measure the correlation strength between the two-layer risks in a project portfolio.Then,according to the above process,the weights of risks are determined,and a decision model of project portfolio risk response is established based on the portfolio mental accounts and the regret theory.Finally,the effectiveness and practicability of the method are verified by a case study.The results show that 1)Both the risk interference to strategy realization and the correlation between risks have an impact on the selection of risk response strategies.2)The influence of the change of risk to strategy realization interference weight on risk response decision is related to response budget.3)The decision makers who pay less attention to the interference of risk on strategy realization tend to select the strategy set which can deal with the stronger correlated risks more;The decision makers who focus on the interference of risk to strategy realization tend to select the strategy set which can deal with the risks at the project portfolio level more.

关 键 词：风险关联 战略实现 项目组合风险应对 网页链接分析方法 组合心理账户 球形模糊集 

分 类 号：C931.2[经济管理—管理学]