天然气管网系统韧性研究现状与应用展望  

Review and application prospect of natural gas pipeline network system resilience research

作　　者：杨兆铭 向旗 苏怀 张劲军[1] YANG Zhaoming;XIANG Qi;SU Huai;ZHANG Jinjun(College of Mechanical and Transportation Engineering,China University of Petroleum(Beijing)//National Engineering Research Center for Pipeline Safety//Beijing Key Laboratory of Urban Oil and Gas Distribution Technology)

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(北京)机械与储运工程学院·油气管道输送安全国家工程研究中心·城市油气输配技术北京市重点实验室

出　　处：《油气储运》2023年第9期1024-1041,共18页Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目“基于数据科学的复杂天然气管网系统状态演化机制分析方法研究”,51904316;中国石油大学(北京)科研基金项目“市场化环境下的天然气管网保供能力评价与优化方法研究”,2462021YJRC013。

摘　　要：天然气管网的持续建设与加速改革使其系统特性与潜在扰动更加复杂,针对天然气管网系统(Natural Gas Pipeline Network System,NGPNS)应对扰动能力的研究亟需向纵深推进。NGPNS韧性研究基于系统全局与局部区域的复合视角,以管网系统在面对扰动时的脆弱性、鲁棒性(可靠性)、恢复力为研究对象,在概念与研究上弥补了管道完整性与管网可靠性研究的局限性。基于此,系统梳理了NGPNS及其他领域系统韧性的研究和应用成果,明确了NGPNS韧性的概念与内涵,归纳并剖析了NGPNS韧性指标构建、模型搭建、模型求解等方面的研究进展及存在问题,探讨了NGPNS韧性优化与提升方法;择要给出国际上成熟的NGPNS韧性研究应用案例,提出了NGPNS韧性研究在工程实际中落地应用的技术基础、数据基础及理论基础,展望了未来NGPNS韧性研究的重点应用场景与发展方向。讨论成果对于深化NGPNS韧性研究,进而保障全时域、多层次、复合维度NGPNS供气安全具有积极参考价值。The continuous construction and accelerated evolution of the natural gas pipeline network system(NGPNS)make the system characteristics and potential disturbance more complicated.Thus,it is urgent to promote the research on the disturbance response capability of the system in depth.Herein,the NGPNS resilience research was conducted based on the vulnerability of the pipeline network system to disturbance,as well as its robustness(reliability)and recovery ability,with the global and local view in combination.This filled the gaps in research on pipeline integrity and pipeline network reliability,both in terms of conceptual scope and research methods.On this basis,the application results on system resilience research within the natural gas pipeline network and other fields were sorted out systematically.Meanwhile,the concept and connotation of NGPNS resilience were defined.Additionally,the research progress and existing issues in the determination of NGPNS resilience indicators,modeling and solution methods were summarized and analyzed,and the optimization and improving methods of NGPNS resilience were discussed.Moreover,the international mature application cases of NGPNS resilience research were introduced,the technical,data and theoretical basis were put forward for the practical application of NGPNS resilience research in actual projects,and the prospect was made for the important application scenarios and development directions of future NGPNS resilience research.Generally,the discussion results are of active reference significance to deepen the NGPS resilience research and thereby ensure the gas supply security by the natural gas pipeline system in full time,multiple levels and composite dimension.

关 键 词：天然气管网 系统韧性 韧性度量 韧性优化 工程应用 

分 类 号：TE832[石油与天然气工程—油气储运工程]