基于可改进SEIR模型的潜伏期有传染力的传染病分析  

Analysis of Infectious Diseases with Infectious Latency Based on an Improved SEIR Model

作　　者：田卫章[1] TIAN Weizhang(Basic Teaching Department,Shangqiu Polytechnic,Shangqiu 476100,China)

机构地区：[1]商丘职业技术学院基础教学部,河南商丘476100

出　　处：《新乡学院学报》2023年第9期11-14,共4页Journal of Xinxiang University

基　　金：河南省高等数学改革研究与实践项目(2019SJGLX739)。

摘　　要：在传统的SEIR传染病模型的基础上,加入了病毒在潜伏期和染病期均有传染力等因素,建立了一种新的可持续改进的SEIR传染病动力学模型。以新型冠状病毒疫情的流行和传播为例,根据疫情早期传播数据,利用Matlab数学软件对数据进行了拟合和预测,为疫情防控提供了科学依据。Based on the traditional SEIR infectious disease model,a new SEIR infectious disease dynamics model with sustainable improvement is established by adding the factors such as the infectivity of the virus in the incubation period and the infectious period.Taking the epidemic and spread of COVID-19 as an example,according to the early transmission data of the epidemic,the data were fitted and predicted by MATLAB mathematical software,which provided a scientific basis for epidemic prevention and control.

关 键 词：可持续改进的SEIR模型 分析 参数估计 预测 

分 类 号：O175.5[理学—数学]