中国推进“一带一路”倡议的价值链网络基础  

The Value Chain Network Basis of China's Belt and Road Initiative

作　　者：程大中[1,2] 唐雨桐 邵心怡 CHENG Dazhong;TANG Yutong;SHAO Xinyi

机构地区：[1]复旦大学世界经济系,上海200433 [2]复旦大学世界经济研究所,上海200433

出　　处：《学术月刊》2023年第9期31-42,共12页Academic Monthly

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(面上项目)《价值链网络演进与中国创新增长:理论机制、实证及政策研究》(72273034);上海市哲学社会科学规划课题(一般课题)《全球大流行与全球价值链:影响、机制及中国应对》(2021BJL001)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：通过包含188个经济体的大样本跨国投入-产出数据,从全球比较的视角可以实证评估中国推进“一带一路”倡议的价值链网络基础。研究表明,相对于跟其他经济体尤其是发达经济体的关系,中国与“一带一路”经济体的价值链关联关系总体上更弱;即使在“一带一路”经济体当中,中国也倾向于跟较高收入水平的经济体保持更为紧密的价值链关联关系。“一带一路”倡议确实能够提高中国与相关伙伴的价值链关联,但这主要体现在与高收入经济体的价值链关联上。中国倾向于跟那些在全球生产网络中具有较高中心度的经济体保持较强的价值链关联关系,但大多数“一带一路”经济体的收入水平与网络中心度都较低。研究提供的证据有助于解答如何挑选区域经济一体化伙伴这一重要问题,而解答这一问题无疑有助于中国进一步优化区域经济一体化的战略布局与政策实施。Using a transnational input-output dataset with 188 economies from 1990 to 2016,this paper provides the first evidence of the global value chains(GVCs)foundation for China's Belt and Road initiative.We find that the value chain linkages between China and the Belt and Road economies are much weaker than those between China and other economies especially higher-income developed ones.Even within the Belt and Road,China tends to have relatively closer value chain linkages to the higher-income economies.The Belt and Road initiative can indeed improve the value chain connections between China and relevant partners,but such impact is mainly reflected in the value chain linkages with high-income economies.China tends to maintain a stronger value chain relationship with economies with higher centrality in the global production network,but most of the Belt and Road economies have lower income levels and network centrality.The evidence provided in this paper will help to answer the important question of how to select good partners of regional economic integration,and answering this question will undoubtedly help China to further optimize the strategic layout and policy implementation of regional economic integration.

关 键 词：全球价值链 投入-产出分析 网络分析 中国经济 “一带一路” 

分 类 号：F11[经济管理—国际贸易]