地球自转周期、极移和章动与全球强震关联分析  

Analyzing the association of the Earth's rotation period,polar motion,and nutation with major global earthquakes

作　　者：王备战[1] 孙明国[2] 金旺 于欢欢[4] WANG Beizhan;SUN Mingguo;JIN Wang;YU Huanhuan(Institute of Science and Technology,Jiaozuo Normal College,Jiaozuo 454000,Henan,China;Changchun Observatory,National Astronomical Observatories,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Changchun 130117,Jilin,China;Aircraft Management and Application Center,Yunnan Police College,Kunming 650000,Yunnan,China;National Astronomical Observatory,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100012,China)

机构地区：[1]焦作师范高等专科学校理工学院,河南焦作454000 [2]中国科学院国家天文台长春人造卫星观测站,吉林长春130117 [3]云南警官学院航空器管理与应用中心,云南昆明650000 [4]中国科学院国家天文台,北京100012

出　　处：《地震工程学报》2023年第5期1057-1065,共9页China Earthquake Engineering Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金资助项目(11903051)。

摘　　要：目前,人们还无法准确地预报地震。找到地震和某种物理量之间的关系,积极地研究地震的触发因素具有非常深远的意义。漂浮在软流层上的地球板块随地球一起转动,地球自转变化可能对强震有一定的触发作用。统计2000年以后全球MW7.9以上强震和地球自转周期、极移以及章动的关系,发现全球强震和大约13~15天的日长变化、大约一年周期极移变化以及十几天左右不规则章动有很强的关联性。通过贝叶斯公式分析,强震发生在日长变化拐点处的概率为随机概率的3倍,发生在极移X方向拐点处的概率为随机概率的6倍,发生在极移Y方向拐点处的概率为随机概率的3倍,发生在章动拐点处的概率为随机概率的2倍。这种拐点不是固定周期,它受到各种摄动因素而发生不规则漂移,全球强震往往发生在上述周期变化的拐点处。希望以上结论能对大地震预报提供有益的参考信息。Currently,earthquakes are impossible to predict accurately.Thus,determining the correlation between earthquakes and certain physical quantities by actively investigating earthquake-generating mechanisms is of great significance.The Earth plate above the asthenosphere rotates with the Earth,and changes in the Earth's rotation may trigger major earthquakes.In this paper,the relationship between major global earthquakes with magnitudes above M W7.9 and the Earth's rotation period,polar motion,and nutation after the year 2000 was examined.A strong correlation was found between major global earthquakes and a change in length of day(LOD)with a period of approximately 13-15 days,polar motion with a period of approximately 1 year,and irregular nutation with a period of approximately 10 days.Analysis using Bayes theorem revealed that the probability of the occurrence of a large earthquake at the inflection point of LOD is three times that of random probability,while probabilities at the inflection points of X-direction pole motion,Y-direction pole motion,and nutation are six,three,and two times,respectively,that of random probability.The inflection point does not have a strictly fixed cycle because it is subject to irregular drifts caused by various perturbations.Major global earthquakes often occur at the inflection points of the aforementioned periodic changes.The study findings are expected to provide useful information for the prediction of large earthquakes.

关 键 词：地震 地球自转 极移 章动 全球 

分 类 号：P316[天文地球—地震学]