青岛市金融、企业和政府部门的杠杆率及其风险防控研究  

Research on the leverage ratio and financial risk prevention of financial,enterprise and government departments in Qingdao

作　　者：杨继梅[1] 李典毓 YANG Ji-mei;LI Dian-yu(College of Economics and Management,Qingdao University of Science and Technology,Qingdao 266061,China)

机构地区：[1]青岛科技大学经济与管理学院,山东青岛266061

出　　处：《青岛科技大学学报（社会科学版）》2023年第3期36-45,100,共11页Journal of Qingdao University of Science and Technology(Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目(22BJY040);青岛市哲学社会科学规划项目(QDSKL2201226)。

摘　　要：在测算青岛市2012—2021年金融部门、非金融企业部门和政府部门杠杆率的基础上,构建VAR模型,探索青岛市分部门杠杆率影响经济增长、金融风险水平的时变特征与结构差异。结果表明:面对金融杠杆率冲击,区域金融风险产生滞后4季度的负向响应,经济增长响应在2季度内由正转为负,金融部门杠杆率提升在抑制经济增长的同时积累金融风险;非金融企业部门杠杆率结构性问题得以改善,但疫情冲击弱化了这一成果,面对企业部门杠杆率冲击,区域金融风险产生滞后3季度正向响应,经济增长产生滞后6季度的负向响应,企业部门杠杆率提升不一定会积累金融风险,但往往伴随着经济衰退;面对政府部门杠杆率冲击,金融风险响应在2季度内由负转正,经济增长产生正向响应,杠杆率增速在合理范围内;各部门杠杆率对金融风险和经济增长波动的贡献度存在结构性差异,企业部门杠杆率对金融风险波动贡献度最高,政府部门杠杆率对经济增长波动贡献度最高。因此,青岛市金融部门与企业部门应持续巩固去杠杆成效,警惕杠杆率攀升对地方金融风险和经济发展的滞后效应,维持杠杆率稳定,增强经济发展韧性。The leverage ratios of different sectors in Qingdao were calculated from 2012 to 2022,and a VAR model was constructed to empirically study the influence of leverage ratio on financial risk levels and economic growth.The results indicate that in response to the impact of financial leverage ratio,regional financial risk has a negative response with a lag of 4 quarters.Economic growth initially shows a positive response but turns to negative in the second quarter.Moreover,an increase in the financial sector's leverage ratio hampers economic growth while also accumulating financial risks.The leverage ratio of the non-financial corporate sector has improved,but the impact of the epidemic has weakened this achievement.In response to impact of the corporate sector's leverage ratio,regional financial risk respond positively with a lag of 3 quarters,while economic growth responds negatively with a lag of 6 quarters.The increase in the corporate sector's leverage ratio does not necessarily lead to an accumulation of financial risks,but is often accompanied by economic consequences.Faced with the impact of government departments'leverage ratio,the financial risk response changed from negative to positive in the second quarter.The financial growth generated a positive response,and the growth rate of the leverage ratio remained within a reasonable range.There are structural diferences in how different sectors contribute to financial risk and economic growth volatility.Among them,the corporate sector has the largest contribution to financial risk volatility,and government department has the highest contribution to economic growth volatility.

关 键 词：杠杆率 区域金融风险 经济增长 结构性差异 

分 类 号：F832.7[经济管理—金融学]