中国对RCEP国家林产品出口增长因素研究  

Research on Driving Factors of Export Growth of China's Forest Products to RCEP Countries

作　　者：葛明[1] 赵素萍[2] GE Ming;ZHAO Suping(College of Economics and Management,Southwest University,Chongqing 400715,China;College of Finance and Economics,Sichuan International Studies University,Chongqing 400031,China)

机构地区：[1]西南大学经济管理学院,重庆400715 [2]四川外国语大学国际金融与贸易学院,重庆400031

出　　处：《西南大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第10期92-100,共9页Journal of Southwest University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(22BGJ042);全国统计科学研究项目(2022LY013);重庆社科基金规划项目(2018YBJJ045);西南大学研究阐释党的二十大精神专项项目(SWU2209051)。

摘　　要：基于恒定市场份额(CMS)模型3层次分解框架,逐层解析了2009-2020年中国对《区域全面经济伙伴关系协定》(RCEP)国家林产品出口增长的驱动因素.结果表明:中国对RCEP国家林产品出口规模波动性增长;进口需求扩大是主导因素,但近年来有所下降,贡献主要源自进口整体规模的扩张,其次是产品和国别需求结构的调整;尽管国别和产品竞争力结构效应表现不佳,但由于出口相对价格大幅提升、数量份额快速增长、产品种类少量增加,出口整体竞争力效应的贡献日益突出;供需结构交互效应缓解了进口需求效应下降的不利影响,深化了出口竞争力攀升的贡献;而上述指标在不同国家和产业中存在异质性特征.因此,中国林产品出口需高度重视RCEP国家市场规模扩大效应以及国别和产品需求结构调整的影响,通过供给侧结构性改革提高林产品价格、数量和种类竞争力,调整出口结构更好地适应进口市场需求,以实现出口规模平稳增长.Based on the constant market share(CMS)three-level model,this paper analyzes the multi-level driving factors of export growth of China's forest products to Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP)countries from 2009 to 2020.The results show that the fluctuation of the scale of China's forest products exporting to RCEP countries has increased.The expansion of import demand is the leading factor,but it has declined in recent years.The contribution is mainly from the expansion of the overall scale of imports,followed by the adjustment of the demand structure of products and countries.Although the structural effects of country and product competitiveness are not good,due to the improvement of large relative price of exports,rapid growth in quantity share,and a small increase in product types,the contribution of the overall competitiveness effect of exports has become increasingly prominent.The interaction effect of supply and demand structure has alleviated the adverse impact of the decline in import demand effect,and deepened the contribution of rising export competitiveness.There is heterogeneity within different countries and industries.Therefore,China's forest products exporting should attach great importance to the effect of RCEP countries'market expansion and the impact of the adjustment of country and product demand structure,improve the competitiveness of the price,quantity and variety of forest products through supply-side structural reform,and adjust the export structure to better adapt to importing market demand in order to achieve steady growth of the export scale.

关 键 词：RCEP 林产品 林产品出口 国际竞争力 恒定市场份额 

分 类 号：F307.2[经济管理—产业经济] F326.2