“印太经济框架”启动对亚太区域经济的影响——基于股票市场的事件研究  

Impacts of the Initiation of IPEF on the Asia-PacificRegional Economy:An Event Study Based on Stock Market

作　　者：陈锦涵 李月[1] 王珊珊 Chen Jinhan;Li Yue;Wang Shanshan

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济学院

出　　处：《东南亚纵横》2023年第4期38-49,共12页Crossroads：Southeast Asian Studies

基　　金：南开大学文科发展基金科学研究类一般项目“海峡两岸经济融合发展指数构建及影响因素研究”(ZB22BZ0209);南开大学亚洲研究中心资助项目“新格局下两岸产业融合高质量发展研究”(AS2222);天津市哲学社会科学规划研究项目“天津参与区域全面经济伙伴关系(RCEP)促进产业融合发展的机制与路径研究”(TJYJQN22-002)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：文章基于事件研究法,分析“印太经济框架”(IPEF)启动对亚太区域股票市场收益的影响。研究发现,IPEF启动对亚太地区股票市场收益的影响确实存在且其对亚太地区不同经济体的影响方向和力度存在差异。具体而言,IPEF启动对其亚太地区成员国的区域整体股票市场收益具有正向作用,其中对美国、韩国、印度、澳大利亚、印度尼西亚、菲律宾、越南的股票市场收益产生正向影响,对泰国和马来西亚却造成较大负向影响,对日本、新西兰、新加坡则无显著影响;IPEF启动对海峡两岸股市存在不对称性影响,其中对中国内地股票市场收益无明显影响,对中国台湾地区则产生一定的正向影响;RCEP的签署相较IPEF启动对亚太区域经济体股票市场产生了更大更持久且更为显著的正向影响。Based on the event study methods,this paper analyzes the impacts of the initiation of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework(IPEF)on the stock market return in the Asia-Pacific region,which are found to exist and vary in the direction and strength across Asia-Pacific economies.Specifically,the initiation of IPEF has a positive effect on the return of theoverall stock market of such Asia-Pacific members as the United States,South Korea,India,Australia,Indonesia,the Philippines and Vietnam,and a large negative impact on Thailand and Malaysia,but no significant impact on Japan,New Zealand and Singapore.The initiation of IPEF has an asymmetric effect on the stock markets of both sides of the Taiwan Straits,with no obvious effect on the Chinese mainland but a certain positive effect on the Taiwanregion.The signing of RCEP had a larger,more lasting and more significant positive impact on the stock markets of Asia-Pacific economies than the initiation of IPEF.

关 键 词：IPEF RCEP 股票市场 事件研究法 

分 类 号：F113[经济管理—国际贸易] F125[经济管理—世界经济]