基于贝叶斯网络的PPP项目收益风险分担决策研究  

Research on Revenue Risk Sharing Decision of PPP Project Based on Bayesian Network

作　　者：傅晓 赵方方 石世英 周岩 王守清[3] FU Xiao;ZHAO Fangfang;SHI Shiying;ZHOU Yan;WANG Shouqing(People’s Armed Forces College,Guizhou University,Guiyang 550025,China;School of Civil Engineering,Henan Polytechnic University,Jiaozuo 454003,China;Department of Construction Management,Tsinghua University,Beijing 100084,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州大学人民武装学院,贵州贵阳550025 [2]河南理工大学土木工程学院,河南焦作454003 [3]清华大学建设管理系,北京100084

出　　处：《建筑经济》2023年第10期96-104,共9页Construction Economy

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目“PPP项目伙伴关系价值机理与测量管理模型研究:基于情景模拟的行为实验”(17YJA630123);河南理工大学博士基金项目“PPP项目伙伴关系维系的机理分析、价值效应及机制设计”(SKB2018-01)。

摘　　要：收益风险是当前阶段我国PPP项目提前终止的首要非系统风险因素。基于风险决策理论和政企合作关系属性,结合工程实际案例统计分析建立PPP项目收益风险分担决策致因模型,并由德尔菲方法确定收益风险分担决策的因素清单,在此基础上利用贝叶斯推理原理和GeNIe工具提炼PPP项目收益风险分担决策的最敏感因素,并对营商环境、伙伴协同能力和收益风险分担决策之间的作用关系进行仿真计算与讨论,探究PPP项目合作主体的收益风险分担决策机理。研究成果期望为我国PPP项目风险决策与治理提供支撑。Revenue risk is the primary non-systematic risk factor for early termination of PPP projects in China at the current stage.Based on risk decision-making theory and the attributes of government enterprise cooperation,establish a causal model for PPP project revenue and risk sharing decision-making based on statistical analysis of actual engineering cases,and the list of risk factors was determined by Delphi method,on this basis,the sensitive risk factors were refined using Bayesian inference principles and GeNIe tools,and the relationship between business environment,partner synergy and benefit-risk sharing decision is simulated and discussed,explore the decision-making mechanism of profit and risk sharing among PPP project partners.The research results hope provide support for PPP project risky decision and governance in China.

关 键 词：PPP项目 贝叶斯网络 收益风险分担 营商环境 风险决策 

分 类 号：F426[经济管理—产业经济] F283