新时期区域房地产发展的机遇与策略——基于租售比的视角  

Opportunity and Strategy of Regional Real Estate Development in the New Era——Based on the Perspective of Price-to-Rent Ratio

作　　者：高峰[1] 王剑[2] GAO Feng;WANG Jian(Economic Analysis and Forecasting Institute,Tianjin Academy of Social Sciences,Tianjin 300191,China;Agricultural information institute of CAAS,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]天津社会科学院经济分析与预测研究所,天津300191 [2]中国农业科学院农业信息研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《江苏商论》2023年第11期20-24,共5页Jiangsu Commercial Forum

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目:供给侧结构性改革进程中企业绩效提升研究(项目编号:18BGL071)。

摘　　要：售租比是反映区域房地产运行状况的主要指标之一,基于这一指标体系的分析对于衡量房地产行业发展的健康水平具有重要意义。本文应用全国房价行情数据库中的房价和房租原始数据,测算4大直辖市和27个省会城市各类型房屋的售租比情况。分析结果表明:2021年,4个直辖市和27个省会城市的二手房售租比均超过了300,但各城市之间售租比分布有所差异,房地产投资利润率也呈现不断下降的趋势。这说明全国房地产业发展水平较高的这31个城市中,房地产行业已经退出了黄金时代,二手房市场也存在着较大的泡沫。基于分析结果,本文从房价控制、市场活跃性和包容性的角度提出相关建议,为楼市软着陆和房地产业长期可持续发展提供建议。The sales to rent ratio is one of the main indicators reflecting the operational status of regional real estate,and analysis based on this indicator system is of great significance for measuring the healthy level of the development of the real estate industry.This article applies the raw data of housing prices and rents from the national housing price market database to calculate the sales to rent ratio of various types of houses in four municipalities and 27 provincial capital cities.The analysis results show that in 2021,the sales to rent ratio of second-hand houses in 4 municipalities and 27 provincial capital cities exceeded 300,but there are differences in the distribution of sales to rent ratios among cities,and the profit margin of real estate investment is also showing a continuous downward trend.This shows that the real estate industry in these 31 cities with a high level of development of the national real estate industry has exited the golden age,and there is also a large foam in the second-hand housing market.Based on the analysis results,this article proposes relevant suggestions from the perspectives of housing price control,market activity,and inclusivity,providing suggestions for the soft landing of the real estate market and the long-term sustainable development of the real estate industry.

关 键 词：房价 房租 售租比 利润率 包容性 

分 类 号：F726[经济管理—产业经济]