近地天体防御模拟推演分析与启示  

Analysis of and Inspiration from Planetary Defense Exercises

作　　者：李海涛[1] 辛晓生[1] LI Haitao;XIN Xiaosheng(Beijing Institute of Tracking and Telecommunications Technology,Beijing 100094,China)

机构地区：[1]北京跟踪与通信技术研究所,北京100094

出　　处：《深空探测学报（中英文）》2023年第4期443-452,共10页Journal Of Deep Space Exploration

基　　金：行星探测工程重大专项资助项目。

摘　　要：防范近地天体撞击、加强近地天体防御科学研究与技术验证和演习演练已成为国际社会高度关注的课题。系统梳理了国际上已组织开展的历次近地天体防御模拟推演,重点对代表性较强的2019年和2021年国际近地天体防御模拟推演进行了概要介绍,对比分析了2次推演的参演单位、场景假定、推演流程和结果,并结合这2次推演对涉及近地天体防御的监测预警、撞击风险评估和在轨处置等各相关力量的组织流程和关键能力进行了初步讨论,提出了对中国加强近地天体防御工作、组织开展天体防御模拟推演的启示及思路建议。The research,technology validation and exercises of planetary defense have become a hot topic and real concern for the international community.General introduction to the international planetary defense exercises(PDE)mainly organized by the United States has been given with a focus on the recent representative 2019 PDE and 2021 PDE.Comparative analysis has been carried out about the exercise participants,scenarios,procedures,and results.Discussions on the related aspects and requirements of planetary defense,such as monitoring and warning,impact risk assessment and active defense strategy,have also been performed.Inspiration and recommendations for Chinese planetary defense actions and related exercises have been proposed.

关 键 词：近地天体防御 模拟推演 启示 

分 类 号：P185.7[天文地球—天文学] TP3[自动化与计算机技术—计算机科学与技术]