变化环境下基于回归分析的非一致性水文频率计算方法  

Inconsistent hydrological frequency calculation method based onregression analysis under changing environment conditions

作　　者：许斌[1,2] 刘宇 吴子怡 霍军军 XU Bin;LIU Yu;WU Ziyi;HUO Junjun(Water Resouces Comprehensive Research Department,Changjiang River Scientific Research Institute,Wuhan 430010,China;Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Eco-Environmental Science of Hubei Province,Wuhan 430010,China;Guangdong Hydropower Planning&Design Institute Ltd.,Guangzhou 510635,China;Eco-Environmental Monitoring and Research Centre,Pearl River and South China Sea Administration of Ministry of Ecology and Environment,Guangzhou 510610,China)

机构地区：[1]长江科学院水资源综合利用研究所,湖北武汉430010 [2]流域水资源与生态环境科学湖北省重点实验室,湖北武汉430010 [3]广东省水利电力勘测设计研究院有限公司,广东广州510635 [4]生态环境部珠江流域南海海域生态环境监督管理局生态环境监测与科学研究中心,广东广州510610

出　　处：《水利水电快报》2023年第10期14-18,28,共6页Express Water Resources & Hydropower Information

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51809009,41890822);长江科学院院级创新团队项目(CKSF2017061/SZ)。

摘　　要：基于非一致性水文频率计算原理的频率计算方法,存在确定性成分参数选取主观性强,无法反映多影响要素的问题。提出了变化环境下基于回归分析的非一致性水文频率计算方法,将该方法应用在鄱阳湖水位非一致性频率计算中。结果表明:鄱阳湖年均水位序列呈现出下降的趋势,枯水期出现的频率有所提升,重现期缩短,导致鄱阳湖干旱情况频发。分析结果与鄱阳湖实际的水位状况较为一致,该方法具有较好的可行性和可靠性。The deficiency of frequency calculation methods based on the inconsistent hydrological frequency calculation principle,such as the subjective selection of deterministic component parameters,single hydrological series analysis and so on.The inconsistent hydrological frequency calculation method based on regression analysis under changing environment conditions was put forward.The inconsistent frequency calculation of water level of Poyang Lake was analyzed by this method,and the results showed that the average annual water level series tended to be decreasing in the Poyang Lake,the frequency of dry periods occurrence was increasing,and the recurrence period was cutting down,which led to more frequent drought in Poyang Lake.The results above show consistency with the actual water level variation,so the method has good feasibility and reliability.

关 键 词：水文频率计算 变化环境 非一致性 回归分析 鄱阳湖 

分 类 号：P333.9[天文地球—水文科学]