BIC与MCMC基准剂量估计模型的比较研究  

Comparison of BIC and MCMC Benchmark Dose Estimation Models

作　　者：彭雯洁 崔靖 张婷 王青青[1] 张超 袁苗 周小林[3] 余红梅[1,4] Peng Wenjie;Cui Jing;Zhang Ting(Department of Health Statistics,School of Public Health,Shanxi Medical University(030000),Taiyuan)

机构地区：[1]山西医科大学公共卫生学院卫生统计教研室,030000 [2]太原市卫生健康综合行政执法队 [3]中国辐射防护研究院 [4]重大疾病风险评估山西省重点实验室

出　　处：《中国卫生统计》2023年第4期535-539,共5页Chinese Journal of Health Statistics

基　　金：生态环境部重点地区环境与健康调查、监测和风险评估——山西煤化工污染区环境与健康哨点综合监测(21111011101);重新参数化基准剂量估计在多环芳烃接触人群健康损害中的应用研究——环境与健康风险评估新技术研究。

摘　　要：目的比较BIC估计法与MCMC近似法两种后验概率法在贝叶斯基准剂量估计中的稳健性,并为山西省洪洞县儿童羟基代谢物可接受剂量的制定提供参考建议。方法首先介绍基于BIC估计法和MCMC近似法计算后验权重的原理,模拟研究选用Integrated Risk Information System数据库中不同剂量-反应数据集共30个,分析比较两种方法的优劣,并在实例研究中采用权重法进行数据整合。结果模拟研究结果显示在所研究的30个数据集中BIC估计法在BMR为0.01时有4个数据集出现BMDL预测失败的情况,在BMR为0.001时有1个数据集出现BMD预测失败的情况,以及6个数据集出现BMDL预测失败的情况。MCMC近似法计算的BMD/BMDL在每一种模型都有70%以上的数据集高于BIC估计法得到的BMD/BMDL。实例分析表明符合洪洞县儿童体内羟基代谢物剂量-反应关系的模型有linear(P=0.13,β=14.3%)、logistic(P=0.06,β=9.5%)、Weibull(P=0.14,β=10.6%)、multistage(P=0.15,β=31.1%)、Hill(P=0.21,β=34.6%)。在BMR为0.001的情况下,洪洞县儿童体内八种羟基代谢物(2-OHN、1-OHN、9-OHF、2-OHF、2-OHphe、1-OHphe、1-OHBaP、3-OHBaP)的可接受剂量(μmol/mol)依次为0.577μmol/mol、1.546μmol/mol、8.135μmol/mol、0.359μmol/mol、0.120μmol/mol、0.098μmol/mol、0.044μmol/mol、0.003μmol/mol。结论MCMC近似法在BMD估计中具有较好的稳定性和鲁棒性。Objective This study compares the robustness of the BIC and MCMC posterior probability methods in Bayesian benchmark dose estimation and it also provides a reference for the formulation of the hydroxy metabolite BMD for children in Hongtong County,Shanxi Province.Methods The study introduces the basic posterior weights based on the MCMC and BIC methods,compares the estimations using a simulated study,and then applies them in the current analysis.Results The simulation results reveal that when the BMR=0.01,the BIC method fails to predict BMDL of four datasets,when the BMR=0.001,the BIC method fails to predict BMD of one datasets and BMDL of six datasets.Furthermore,each model in the thirty datasets has more than seventy percent of the BIC method to obtain BMD/BMDL higher than the BMD/BMDL obtained from MCMC method.The results also illustrate that linear(P=0.13,β=14.3%),logistic(P=0.06,β=9.5%),Weibull(P=0.14,β=10.6%),multistage(P=0.15,β=31.1%),and Hill(P=0.21,β=34.6%)are acceptable hydroxy metabolite models.When BMR=0.001,the acceptable doses of the hydroxyl metabolites 2-OHN,1-OHN,9-OHF,2-OHF,2-OHphe,1-OHphe,1-OHBaP,and 3-OHBaP are 0.577μmol/mol,1.546μmol/mol,8.135μmol/mol,0.359μmol/mol,0.120μmol/mol,0.098μmol/mol,0.044μmol/mol,and 0.003μmol/mol,respectively.Conclusion The results show that MCMC method has greater stability and robustness than BIC method in benchmark dose analysis.

关 键 词：基准计量 贝叶斯信息准则 马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛 贝叶斯模型平均法 

分 类 号：R195[医药卫生—卫生统计学]