基于递进动因分解的碳税减排机制研究  

Impact mechanism of carbon tax on carbon emission reduction based on progressive motivation decomposition

作　　者：姚西龙[1] 刘娜 YAO Xilong;LIU Na(College of Economics and Management,Taiyuan University of Technology,Taiyuan 030024,China)

机构地区：[1]太原理工大学经济管理学院,太原030024

出　　处：《资源科学》2023年第7期1285-1296,共12页Resources Science

基　　金：山西省高等学校哲学社会科学研究基地项目(RD2100003605)。

摘　　要：【目的】旨在厘清碳税的具体减排机制,助其充分发挥减排功能,推动碳减排政策体系建设。【方法】本文基于多层递进动因分解视角探究碳税的减排机制,建立可计算一般均衡模型(CGE)与结构路径分解(SPD)的耦合模型,识别碳税的关键减排路径,并对促进各路径减排的驱动因素进行分解分析。【结果】(1)碳税的减排作用以产业链引发的间接减排为主,占碳减排总量的80.77%,且碳税的减排效果随生产层级的增加而逐渐减弱;(2)能源效率效应是碳税促进减排的最主要动因,不同驱动因素在各生产层级、不同减排路径上的作用存在差异;(3)重工业、火电行业、煤炭行业等少数关键行业提供了主要碳减排贡献,固定资本形成的减排贡献最大,且主要通过影响建筑业对上游高耗能行业的需求这一路径实现碳减排。【结论】因此,应当充分把握和利用各关键因素对不同生产层级和路径碳减排的驱动机制,充分挖掘产业链关键环节的减排潜力,采取针对性措施促进行业间协同减排。[Objective]Aiming to clarify the specific emission reduction mechanism of carbon tax,give full play to its emission reduction function,and promote the construction of carbon emission reduction policy system.[Methods]A coupled model of computable general equilibrium(CGE)and structural path decomposition(SPD)was developed to identify the key emission reduction paths of carbon taxes,and the drivers promoting emission reduction on each path were decomposed and analyzed.[Results]The results show that the indirect emission reduction triggered by the industrial chain accounts for 80.77%of the total emission reduction from the carbon tax,and the emission reduction effect of the carbon tax will gradually diminish with the increase of the production level.The energy efficiency effect is the most important driver of carbon tax for emission reduction,and the role of different drivers varies across production levels and on different emission reduction paths.The key industries such as heavy industry,thermal power industry and coal industry providing the main carbon reduction contribution.Fixed capital formation contributes the most to carbon reduction and mainly achieves carbon emission reduction through the path of influencing the construction industry's demand for upstream energy-intensive industries.[Conclusion]Therefore,the driving force mechanism of each key factor on carbon emission reduction at different production levels and paths of carbon tax should be fully grasped and utilized,the emission reduction potential of key links in the industrial chain should also be fully explored,and targeted measures should be taken to promote synergistic emission reduction among industries.

关 键 词：碳税 传导机制 递进动因 可计算一般均衡模型 结构路径分解 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F812.42[经济管理—财政学]