多维异质性视角下高铁建设对城市碳排放强度的影响及其机制——基于281个地级及以上城市准自然实验  

The effect of high-speed railway construction on urban carbon emission intensity and mechanism under the perspective of multidimensional heterogeneity:A quasi natural experiment based on 281 cities at prefecture level and above in China

作　　者：张晓昱[1,3] 李润楠[1] 秦玉婷 左其亭 郑鹏飞[2] ZHANG Xiaoyu;LI Runnan;QIN Yuting;ZUO Qiting;ZHENG Pengfei(Business School,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China;School of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China;Yellow River Institute for Ecological Protection&Regional Coordinated Development,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001,China)

机构地区：[1]郑州大学商学院,郑州450001 [2]郑州大学黄河生态保护与区域协调发展研究院,郑州450001 [3]郑州大学水利与土木工程学院,郑州450001

出　　处：《资源科学》2023年第7期1310-1323,共14页Resources Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52279027);郑大经济学管理学新兴学科孵化研究基地项目(101/32610168);郑州大学骨干教师培育计划项目(2021ZDGGJS034)。

摘　　要：【目的】高速铁路的低碳优势有利于早日实现“碳中和、碳达峰”的战略目标,因此从多维异质性视角探究高铁建设的低碳减排效应及其影响机制意义凸显。【方法】本文基于2006—2020年全国281个地级及以上城市面板数据,将高铁建设视为一项准自然实验,采用多期双重差分法、空间双重差分法和中介效应模型,系统探究了高铁建设对城市碳排放强度的直接效应、空间溢出效应及其作用机制。【结果】研究发现:(1)高铁建设对城市碳排放强度的降低有显著促进作用,且该效应平均存在4年延迟期;(2)高铁减排效应在西部城市、成长型和衰退型的资源型城市及非枢纽城市显著,但在其他地区和类型的城市没有显著影响;(3)机制检验结果表明高铁建设能通过提高城市经济聚集度和科技创新水平进而降低城市碳排放强度;(4)空间双重差分结果显示,高铁建设对邻近城市碳排放强度的负向“虹吸效应”大于正向“扩散效应”。【结论】因此,对于高铁建设,国家应保存量稳增量,继续发挥其低碳减排作用,各地方政府也应因地制宜,统筹兼顾,合理制定减排政策,在实现城市碳减排目标的同时,推动区域协调发展。[Objective] As the low-carbon advantage of high-speed railway is conducive to the ear-ly realisation of the strategic goal of"carbon neutrality and carbon peaking",it is of great signifi-cance to explore the low-carbon emission reduction effect of high-speed railway construction and its influencing mechanism from a multi-dimensional heterogeneity perspective.[Methods]Based on the panel data of 281 prefecture-level and above cities in China from 2006 to 2020,this study considered the construction of high-speed railway as a quasi-natural experiment,and adopted the multi-period difference-in-differences method,spatial difference-in-differences method,and media-tion effect model to systematically investigate the direct effect and spatial spillover effect of the construction of high-speed railway on the intensity of carbon emission in cities and mechanism.[Results]The study found that:(1)The construction of high-speed railway made a significant con-tribution to the reduction of urban carbon emission intensity,and there was a four-year delay period in this effect on average;(2)The emission reduction effect of high-speed railway was significant in western cities,growing and declining resource cities,and non-hub cities,but not in other regions and types of cities;(3)The results of mechanism test show that the construction of high-speed rail-way can reduce the carbon emission intensity of cities by increasing the level of urban economic ag-glomeration and scientific and technological innovation;(4)The results of spatial difference-in-dif-ferences analysis show that the negative"siphoning effect"of high-speed railway construction on the carbon emission intensity of neighboring cities was greater than the positive"diffusion effect".[Conclusion]Therefore,for the construction of high-speed railway,the state should keep the exist-ing stock and maintain the constant growth so that high-speed railway can continue to play a role in low-carbon development and emission reduction,and local governments should also take into ac-count

关 键 词：高铁 碳排放强度 准自然实验 双重差分模型 中介效应模型 

分 类 号：F532[经济管理—产业经济] X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]