1981-2015年中国区域极端气候事件的时空分布特征  

Spatial and Temporal Distribution Characteristics of Regional Extreme Climate Events in China from 1981 to 2015

作　　者：蒋帅[1,2] 张黎 景元书[1] 李攀 任小丽[2,3] 何洪林[2,3,4] Jiang Shuai;Zhang Li;Jing Yuanshu;Li Pan;Ren Xiaoli;He Honglin(Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Agrometeorology,Nanjing University of Information Sciences and Technology,Nanjing 210044,China;Key Laboratory of Ecosystem Network Observation and Modeling,Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100101,China;National Ecosystem Science Data Center,Beijing 100101,China;College of Resources and Environment,University of Chinese Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100190,China;School of Earth System Science,Tianjin University,Tianjin 300072,China)

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学江苏省农业气象重点实验室,南京210044 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所生态系统网络观测与模拟重点实验室,北京100101 [3]国家生态科学数据中心,北京100101 [4]中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京100190 [5]天津大学地球系统科学学院,天津300072

出　　处：《水土保持研究》2023年第6期295-306,共12页Research of Soil and Water Conservation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(31971512,42141005,42030509)。

摘　　要：[目的]阐明中国区域连续时空范围内极端气候事件的高发区域和时段,增强对我国极端气候事件发生规律的认知,进而为人类社会减缓和适应气候变化提供重要科学依据。[方法]基于CRUNCEP的温度和降水量数据,在1.5倍标准差极端值判别法的基础上结合连续时空极端事件分析方法,分析了1981—2015年中国区域不同类型极端气候事件的变化规律特征。[结果](1)全国极端降水和温度事件出现年份的极端气候事件具有明显的区域差异性。1983年、1998年、2012年为全国极端强降水年,极端强降水事件的主要发生区域分别位于长江中下游、长江上游和内蒙古东部,以及长江中下游和内蒙古地区。对于全国极端干旱年、1986年全国大部分区域均较常年偏干,而2011年干旱区域集中出现在亚热带—热带季风气候区。全国极端高温和极端低温年分别出现在1998年、2012年,其中1998年全国大部分地区温度偏高,而2012年极端低温事件主要发生于温带大陆性气候区。(2)1981—2015年,46%的极端强降水事件发生在2001—2015年;13%的极端干旱事件发生在2001—2015年的亚热带-热带季风气候区;极端高温事件频发于1991—2000年(42%)和2001—2015年(43%);21%的极端低温事件发生在2001—2015年的温带大陆性气候区。(3)复合极端气候事件出现比例存在逐年代际递增的趋势,其中极端低温强降水事件出现比例最高(34%),并且主要集中在2001—2015年(23%)。[结论]单因子极端气候和复合极端气候事件在中国四大气候区具有较强的差异性,未来应加强分析中国区域日、月等短时间尺度上极端气候事件的时空分布特征。[Objective]The aims of this study are to clarify the high incidence areas and time periods of extreme climate events within a continuous spatiotemporal range in the Chinese region,enhance understanding of the occurrence patterns of extreme climate events in China,and provide an important scientific basis for human society to mitigate and adapt to climate change.[Methods]We analyzed the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of different types of extreme climate events in China from 1981 to 2015,using both the 1.5 times standard deviation and the continuous spatiotemporal extreme event analysis method based on the temperature and precipitation data of CRUNCEP.[Results]There were different regional patterns of extreme climate events in those years experiencing extreme annual precipitation and air temperature events for the whole country.For the years with extreme heavy annual precipitation in 1983,1998 and 2012,extreme heavy annual precipitation events mainly occurred in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River,the upper reaches of the Yangtze River and eastern Inner Mongolia,and the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and Inner Mongolia,respectively.The national extreme drought event existed in 1986 and 2011.Most regions of the country were drier than that in normal years in 1986,while the extreme drought events mainly occurred in the subtropical and tropical monsoon climate region in 2011.The extreme high temperature and extreme low temperature events occurred in 1998 and 2012,respectively.The mean air temperature in most parts of the country was higher than usual in 1998.The extreme low temperature events in 2012 occurred frequently in the temperate continental climate region.During 1981—2015,46%of extreme heavy precipitation events occurred in 2001—2015.There were 13%of extreme drought events which occurred in the subtropical tropical monsoon climate region from 2001 to 2015.Extreme high temperature events occurred frequently in 1991—2000(42%)and 2001—2015(43%).There were 21%of e

关 键 词：极端气候事件 连续时空极端事件 气候区 复合极端事件 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]