中国用水演变态势研判——读《做好新时期水资源需求的研判》并与之商榷  

Judging the evolution of China's water use——reading and debating the study of“Making a good judgement on the water resources demand in the new era”/

作　　者：王建华[1] 何国华[1] 师林蕊 朱永楠[1] Wang Jianhua;He Guohua;Shi Linrui;Zhu Yongnan

机构地区：[1]中国水利水电科学研究院,流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038

出　　处：《中国水利》2023年第18期29-33,共5页China Water Resources

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3200204);国家自然科学基金(52025093,52109042);国家重点实验室自主研究课题(SKL2022ZD01)。

摘　　要：用水演变态势事关经济社会发展、生态文明建设大局,直接影响重大水利工程总体格局,是近年来水利学界研究的热点问题。《中咨研究》近日刊发的《做好新时期水资源需求的研判》一文,明确提出我国用水已经达峰,未来新鲜水使用量不会增加的观点。笔者长期进行需水预测研究,认为该观点依据有所不足,现阶段就得出我国用水已经达峰的结论还为时尚早。为进一步明晰未来用水态势,论述了对我国用水演变的认识,研判了各行业未来用水需求,并提出需水研究的发力方向,以期为推动学界达成共识、指导水治理实践提供有益参考。The evolution of water use is a hot issue in recent years in water conservancy research which is related to economic and social development,ecological civilization construction,directly affect the overall pattern of significant water conservancy projects.The article“Making a good judgement on the water resources demand in the new era”,published in the CIECC Research,clearly puts forward the view that China’s water consumption has already reached its peak and that there will be no increase in the use of fresh water in the future.The author,who has been conducting water demand forecasting research for a long time,thinks this argument is not well founded,and it is still too early to conclude that China’s water use has reached its peak.In order to further clarify the future water use situation,the author discusses the understanding of the evolution of water use in China,examines the future water demand of various industries,and proposes the direction of water demand research intending to provide useful references to promote the consensus of the academic community and guide the practice of water governance.

关 键 词：用水 需水 达峰 发展态势 水治理 工程规划 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]