城镇化诺瑟姆曲线的新发现:局限、修正与精化  

Advancement in Understanding the Northam Curve of Urbanization:Limitations,Revisions and Refinements

作　　者：李欣[1,2] 吴志强[1,3,4] LI Xin;WU Zhiqiang

机构地区：[1]同济大学建筑与城市规划学院 [2]同济大学长三角城市群智能规划协同创新中心 [3]中国工程院 [4]上海市政府

出　　处：《城市规划学刊》2023年第3期19-26,共8页Urban Planning Forum

基　　金：“十四五”国家重点研发计划课题“城市可持续规划建设多模态情景智能仿真信息平台研究”(项目编号:2022YFC3800205);上海同济城市规划设计研究院有限公司暨长三角城市群智能规划协同创新中心科研课题“世界各国城镇化进程报告框架研究”(项目编号:KY-2023-YB-B02)。

摘　　要：对城镇化进程的认知,长期以来都是建立在1960年代形成的诺瑟姆曲线理论的基础上,但大量的发展事实表明了诺瑟姆曲线存在着理论盲区,可能造成在城镇化问题上的现状研判、未来预测以及政策制定的严重错误。通过对占全世界人口总数95.12%的88个国家和地区的城镇化过程的实证研究,发现在城镇化诺瑟姆曲线之外,还存在城镇化的拓展形曲线和波形曲线两类曲线,3种形态的城镇化曲线还可分为8种城镇化类型,分别是标准诺瑟姆型、上标修正诺瑟姆型、下标修正诺瑟姆型、高位拓展型、中位拓展型,以及高位波型、中位波型、低位波型。进一步实证分析各类型城镇化曲线的城镇化率水平特征、所在国特征、城镇化动力内涵特征,对城镇化进程进行规律总结,实现了城镇化进程全模式图谱的理论性突破;对建立正确的城镇化规律认知,理解城镇化的主导动力转换、城镇化率的稳定状态区间以及城镇化的韧性与稳定性等3个重要特征具有重要理论价值。The understanding of the urbanization process has long been reliant on the Northam Curve theory formulated in the 1960s.However,a large amount of evidence in urban development points to many theoretical blind spots in the Northam Curve,which may mislead the analysis of current situations,the prediction of future trend of urbanization,and the making of public policies.This study addresses these gaps through empirical research on the urbanization process of 88 countries and regions that represent 95.12%of the world's population.The research reveals that there are two other types of urbanization curves,namely expanding curve and undulating curve.Within the three curves,eight distinctive urbanization types can be further identified.These include the Standard Northam Type,Upper Correction Type,Lower Correction Type,High-level Expanding Type,Middle-level Expanding Type,High-level Undulating Type,Middle-level Undulating Type,and Low-level Undulating Type.The study further analyzes the urbanization rates,national characteristics,and internal dynamics of urbanization for each type of urbanization curve,summarizes the laws of urbanization,and presents a comprehensive picture of the urbanization process.The research makes theoretical contributions to the understanding of the laws of urbanization,the dominant driving force of urbanization and its transition,the stable range of urbanization rate,and the resilience and stability of urbanization.

关 键 词：城镇化曲线 城镇化诺瑟姆曲线 城镇化拓展形曲线 城镇化波形曲线 

分 类 号：TU984[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]