双循环战略布局下的粮食贸易新格局研究  

Study of the New Pattern of Grain Trade under the Strategic Layout of Dual Circulation

作　　者：倪国华[1] 苏丹华 NI Guohua;SU Danhua

机构地区：[1]北京工商大学经济学院 [2]北京物资学院经济学院

出　　处：《中国农业大学学报（社会科学版）》2023年第4期159-171,共13页Journal of China Agricultural University;Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目“深入实施藏粮于地、藏粮于技战略研究”(21ZDA055);国家自然科学基金面上项目“全球贸易新格局下中国构建自主型粮食安全体系的理论路径与政策模拟研究”(72073008)。

摘　　要：党的二十大报告明确提出要全方位夯实粮食安全根基、加快构建新发展格局、推进高水平对外开放,这为确保中国粮食安全和粮食贸易合理布局提供了重要指导。以部分大宗农产品期货市场对外开放为标志,中国的粮食贸易正向更有利于提升粮食贸易主导权的新格局演化。本文分析了中国粮食贸易新格局的内涵及其理论基础,提出了粮食贸易新格局建设进程中存在的关键问题,并进一步提出了对策建议。研究指出,中国的粮食贸易新格局的内涵体现在粮食贸易结构更加多元、国际粮食供应链产业链自主可控以及打造“中国价格”把握粮食贸易定价权三个方面。粮食贸易新格局建设进程中存在的关键问题包括贸易来源多元化战略短期内不足以填补国内巨大的饲料粮需求缺口、尚未形成竞争力较强的国际粮食产业链以及国内外农产品期货市场联通需要加强。针对这些问题,建议加快实施饲料粮减量替代,推动粮食贸易品种与来源多元化;推动中国粮企向外有效延伸产业链,强化关键环节科技支撑;稳步推进大宗农产品期货市场制度型开放,提升“中国价格”的全球影响力;合理维护国家间的政治关系,确保粮食贸易新格局稳定可持续。研究结果可为优化中国粮食贸易布局提供理论依据和决策参考。The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China(CPC)clearly stated that it is necessary to consolidate the foundation of food security in an all-round way,to accelerate the construction of a new development pattern,and to promote high-level opening up,which provides important guidance for ensuring China's food security and the rational distribution of grain trade.Marked by the opening of futures markets for some commodities,China's grain trade is evolving in a new pattern that is more conducive to enhancing the dominance of the grain trade.This paper analyzes the connotation and theoretical basis of the new pattern of grain trade in China,puts forward the key problems in the process of building the new pattern of grain trade,and some suggestions were put forward further.The results show that the connotation of China's new grain trade pattern is reflected in three aspects:a more diversified grain trade structure,independent and controllable international food supply chains and industrial chains,and the construction of“China price”for pricing power of grain trade.The key problems in the process of building the new pattern of food trade include that the strategy of diversifying trade sources is not enough to fill the huge domestic demand gap for feed grain in the short term,the international grain industry chain with strong competitiveness has not been formed,and the connection between domestic and foreign agricultural futures markets needs to be strengthened.To solve these problems,it is recommended to accelerate the implementation of feed grain reduction and substitution,and promote the diversification of grain trade varieties and sources;to promote China's grain enterprises to effectively extend the industrial chain and strengthen scientific and technological support for key links;to steadily promote the institutional opening of the commodity futures market and enhance the global influence of“China Price”;to maintain the political relations between countries reasonably and ensure

关 键 词：双循环 新发展格局 粮食贸易 产业链 定价权 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济] F752