贸易政策不确定性对制造业出口绩效的影响  

The influence of trade policy uncertainty on export performance of Chinese manufacturing firms

作　　者：倪武帆 邓思雨 甘宋国 Ni Wufan;Deng Siyu;Gan Songguo(School of Economics,Wuhan Textile University,Wuhan 430200)

机构地区：[1]武汉纺织大学经济学院,武汉430200

出　　处：《北方经贸》2023年第9期26-29,共4页Northern Economy and Trade

基　　金：武汉纺织大学研究生创新基金项目阶段性成果。

摘　　要：企业出口绩效是出口竞争力的重要体现,研究新形势下贸易政策不确定性对企业出口绩效的影响,对我国出口贸易的长远发展具有重要意义。通过实证研究法,利用2000-2013年中国工企、海关匹配数据,研究两者之间的关系。结果发现,贸易政策不确定性的下降对企业出口绩效具有显著的影响,主要体现在企业出口规模和出口技术复杂度两个方面。同时发现贸易政策不确定性的下降对一般贸易和加工贸易作用也不相同。基于以上结论,提出中国制造业出口企业要减少对单一市场的依赖、加强高附加值产品生产以及多参与区域经济合作等相关建议,实现中国“制”造向中国“质”造的转型升级。As an important embodiment of export competitiveness,it is of great significance for the long-term development of Chinese export trade to study the impact of trade policy uncertainty on enterprise export performance under the new situation.Through the empirical rese arch method,using the matching data of industrial enterprises and customs in China from 2000 to 2013,the relationship between them is studied.The results show that the decline of trade policy uncertainty has a significant impact on the export performance of firms,which is mainly reflected in the export scale and export technical complexity of firms.It is also found that the decline of trade policy uncertainty has different effects on general trade and processing trade.Based on the above conclusions,this paper puts forward relevant suggestions for Chinese manufacturing export enterprises to reduce their dependence on the single market,strengthen the produc tion of high value-added products and participate in regional economic cooperation,so as to realize the transformation and upgrading of China's“manufacturing”to“quality”manufacturing.

关 键 词：贸易政策不确定性 制造业 出口绩效 

分 类 号：F426.4[经济管理—产业经济]