非税收入规范与财政政策波动性——以中国财政电子票据管理改革为准实验  

The Regulation of Non-Tax Revenue and Fiscal Policy Volatility--Quasi-Experiment Based on the Reform of Financial Electronic Bill Management in China

作　　者：王立勇[1] 郭良稳 Wang Liyong;Guo Liangwen

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学国际经济与贸易学院 [2]中央财经大学统计与数学学院

出　　处：《财政研究》2023年第7期99-114,共16页Public Finance Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“非常规财政政策的作用机理、效应评估、政策设计与模拟”(72273161);中国财政发展协同创新中心2023年度科研立项资助课题“中国税收优惠政策的减税效果评估”。

摘　　要：本文首先借鉴Fernández-Villaverde等(2015)的方法测度了中国27个省、直辖市和自治区2010年1季度—2021年4季度的财政政策波动性,将2017年以来逐步推行的财政电子票据管理改革作为准自然实验,借助交错型双重差分模型推断非税收入规范对财政政策波动性的因果效应,并对其内在机制进行理论分析与实证检验。结果表明:非税收入规范能够显著降低财政政策波动性;机制研究表明:非税收入规范能够提升政府的财政收入能力,强化制度对政府行为的约束力,从而提升政府财政治理能力,提高财政政策调控的前瞻性、精准性和有效性,从而降低财政政策波动性。This paper quantitatively measures the fiscal policy volatility of 27 provinces in China from 2010 to 2021,and assesses the impact of enhanced non-tax revenue regulation on China's fiscal policy volatility by using the reform of financial electronic bill management gradually implemented since 2017 as a quasi-experiment of non-tax revenue regulation.We find that the strengthening of non-tax revenue management has a significant effect on fiscal policy volatility,and this conclusion is robust and reliable.The mechanism is that the regulation of nontax revenue governance improves the fiscal revenue capacity of local governments,strengthens the binding force of the system on government behaviors,thus improves the fiscal governance capacity of local governments,enhances the forward-looking,precise and effective regulation of fiscal policies,and ultimately reduces the fiscal policy volatility.

关 键 词：非税收入 财政政策波动性 财政治理能力 交错型双重差分 

分 类 号：F812[经济管理—财政学]