政府债务率、私人部门跨境资本流入与经济增长--基于新兴经济体和发展中国家的实证检验  

Public Debt,Private Capital Flows and Economic Growth

作　　者：杨艳林[1] YANG Yanin(School of Economics and Finance,South China University of Technology)

机构地区：[1]华南理工大学

出　　处：《金融经济》2023年第9期17-27,共11页Finance Economy

摘　　要：全球金融危机后大部分国家的公共部门债务规模大幅扩张,同时金融抑制程度有所反弹。本文以金融资产利率管制指数来衡量一国金融抑制程度,通过使用交叉项模型和面板门槛模型对1990—2019年间55个新兴经济体及发展中国家数据进行实证研究,发现私人部门跨境资本流入对一国经济增长的积极影响存在政府债务率门槛效应,即当债务率偏高时资本流入的积极效果将会减弱。作用机制在于,政府债务率偏高会推高国内金融抑制程度,而金融抑制会削弱跨境资本流入对经济增长的正向效果。上述发现凸显了我国防范化解地方政府债务风险、健全市场化利率形成与传导机制对于推进更高水平对外开放的积极意义。Most countries'public debt has expanded sharply since the global financial crisis and the degree of financial repression has rebounded.This paper takes financial assets'interest rate control index to measure financial repression degree.Furthermore,based on a sample database of 55 emerging markets and developing countries from 1990 to 2019,the paper using cross-term model and panel threshold model empirically proves that there exists public debt ratio threshold effect of international capital inflows on economic growth.When the public debt ratio gets too high,it may weaken the positive effect of capital inflows.The mechanism is that,a high public debt ratio may lead to an increase of domestic interest control degree and financial repression will mitigates the positive effect of international capital inflows on output growth.The findings highlight the positive significance of China's effort to resolve the local government debt risk and improve the formation and transmission mechanism of flexible interest rates for promoting the opening-up at a higher level.

关 键 词：资本流动 公共部门债务 金融抑制 利率管制 实际产出增长 新兴经济体 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]