多类短临预报产品对舟山群岛台风强降水的定量检验评估——以“米娜”为例  

Quantitative Evaluation of Short-term Forecast Products on Heavy Precipitation Induced by Tropical Cyclone in the Zhoushan Islands--A Case Study for the Typhoon“Mitag”

作　　者：徐哲永 马浩[2] 高大伟[2] 范其平 陈淑琴 刘菡 Xu Zheyong;Ma Hao;Gao Dawei;Fan Qiping;Chen Shuqin;Liu Han(Zhoushan Meteorological Bureau,Zhoushan 316021,Zhejiang,China;Zhejiang Climate Center,Hangzhou 310020,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江省舟山市气象局,浙江舟山316021 [2]浙江省气候中心,杭州310020

出　　处：《科技通报》2023年第6期1-13,共13页Bulletin of Science and Technology

基　　金：浙江省气象局重点项目(2020ZD14);浙江省气象局预报员专项项目(2019YBY13);舟山市公益性科技项目(2021C31027)。

摘　　要：数值天气预报及多模式集成预报产品对短时强降水的预报水平是数值天气预报模式预报能力的重要体现。本文以1918号台风“米娜”为例,对其暴雨成因进行分析,并运用TS、RMSE等多种方法对QPF(quantitative precipitation forecasting)、OCF(objective consensus forecasting)、ECMWF(european centre for medium-range weather forecasts)降水预报产品进行多时间尺度检验评估。结果表明:暴雨的水汽主要来自“米娜”本体,850 hPa以下稳定的水汽输入与水汽汇聚和从低层到高层稳定深厚的动力条件是舟山群岛产生强降水的主要原因。QPF可以提前2 h判断出降水起止;QPF逐10 min降水预报产品准确率随时间上升,基于QPF制作1 h降水预报产品对业务预报有重要参考价值。当前时次00分的降水预报较其他时次更为准确与稳定。通过3 h降水预报检验对比,发现OCF优于ECMWF和QPF;在12 h与24 h的降水预报检验中OCF亦优于ECMWF;QPF除在过程降水的大雨量级上表现突出外,多数量级的评分位居2~3位。从检验策略来看,分级RMSE较无分级RMSE能够给出更为丰富和细致的信息。Forecast skill of numerical models and multi-model integration products on short-term intensive precipitation is an important indicator to reflect the ability of numerical weather forecast models.In this paper,circulation cause for heavy rainfall induced by the typhoon“Mitag”(No.1918 typhoon)is analyzed,and moreover,multi-scale assessment for rainfall forecast from QPF(quantitative precipitation forecasting),OCF(objective consensus forecasting),and ECMWF(european centre for medium-range weather forecasts)is conducted based on a series of examination methods including the TS score and RMSE.The result indicates that the moisture for torrential rain primarily comes from the typhoon body.Stationary moisture transport and convergence under 850 hPa and quasi-barotropic stable and profound dynamic conditions work together to generate strong precipitation over Zhoushan Islands.QPF is able to forecast the start and stop time of rainfall process before 2 h,and moreover,the accuracy of QPF 10 min updating products gradually improves with the shortening of forecast effectiveness,so it is of great operational importance to produce future 1 h precipitation forecast based on the QPF results.Comparatively speaking,rainfall forecasts outputted on the current hour appear more precise and stable.Evaluation for the 3 h forecast indicates that the OCF products are superior to ECMWF and QPF results.For 12 h and 24 h forecast,general performance of OCF is also better than that of ECMWF.Although the forecast ability of QPF for heavy rain is prominent during the full precipitation period,its grade only ranks second or third among the three models in most cases.As for the verification strategy,compared to the none-division RMSE,the classified RMSE is able to provide more extensive and detailed information.

关 键 词：“米娜”台风 短时强降水 环流成因 多模式集成 定量检验 多时间尺度 

分 类 号：P457.8[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]