1972—2021年浙江省气温和降水变化的多时间尺度分析  

Multiple Time Scales Analysis of Temperature and Precipitation Changes in Zhejiang Province from 1972 to 2021

作　　者：张雅旎 朱旻翔 孙晓燕 安卫士 刘瑞 胡永亮 Zhang Yani;Zhu Minxiang;Sun Xiaoyan;An Weishi;Liu Rui;Hu Yongliang(Zhejiang Meteorological Information Network Center,Hangzhou 310017,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江省气象信息网络中心,杭州310017

出　　处：《科技通报》2023年第6期14-19,39,共7页Bulletin of Science and Technology

基　　金：浙江省气象局重点项目(2019ZD14)。

摘　　要：本文利用浙江省68个国家气象站1972—2021年的年降水量和日平均气温资料,采用线性倾向率法、累积距平法、Mann-Kendall非参数检验、滑动T检验和小波分析等数理统计分析方法,对浙江省近50 a来的气候变化特征进行研究。结果表明:(1)浙江省近50 a来,年均气温显著上升,气候倾斜率为0.39℃/10a;年降水量整体呈现小幅度的上升趋势,波动现象比较明显,气候倾斜率为38.339 mm/10a;(2)年均气温在1997年左右出现了1次明显突变,经历了1次低温到高温的转变;年降水量则在2010年左右出现明显突变,2010年是浙江省年降水量逐渐增加的开始;(3)小波分析结果显示浙江省近50 a来的气候变化的第一主周期为30 a;年均气温主要存在着24~32 a的长周期规律,短周期规律不显著;年降水量的震荡周期存在24~32 a、14~24 a、8~12 a、4~8 a的多尺度嵌套结构;(4)目前处于小波系数等值线气温高值中心及降水低值中心,等值线尚未闭合,预测未来一段时间将继续处于年均气温偏高、降水偏低的周期内。Based on the annual precipitation and average temperature data of 68 national meteorological stations in Zhejiang Province from 1972 to 2021,the characteristics of climate change is studied by mathematical statistical analysis methods such as linear tendency rate,cumulative departure method,Mann-Kendall nonparametric test,moving t-test and wavelet analysis.The results show that:(1)In last 50 years,the average temperature in Zhejiang Province has increased significantly,climate trend rate is 0.39℃/10a;The annual precipitation shows a small upward trend,with obvious fluctuation,climate trend rate is 38.339 mm/10a;(2)There was an obvious sudden change of average annual temperature in 1997,which experienced a transformation from low to high;The annual precipitation has an obvious sudden change around 2010.2010 is the beginning of the gradual increase of annual precipitation in Zhejiang Province;(3)The first main cycle of climate change in Zhejiang Province in recent 50 years is 30 years;The annual average temperature mainly has a long-term law of 24~32 years,and the short-term law is not significant;The oscillation period of annual precipitation has a multi-scale nested structure of 24~32 years,14~24 years,8~12 years and 4~8 years;(4)At present,it is in the center of high temperature and low precipitation of wavelet coefficient isoline,which has not been closed.It will continue to be in the cycle of high temperature and low precipitation in the future.

关 键 词：气温 降水 Mann-Kendall算法 小波分析 浙江 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]