中国钢铁行业碳达峰碳中和时间表与路线图  

Roadmap and timetable for achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality of China′s iron and steel industry

作　　者：张琦[1,2,3] 田硕硕[1] 沈佳林 ZHANG Qi;TIAN Shuoshuo;SHEN Jialin(State Environment Protection Key Laboratory of Eco-Industry,Northeastern University,Shenyang 110819,Liaoning,China;Institute for Frontier Technologies of Low-Carbon Steelmaking,Northeastern University,Shenyang 110819,Liaoning,China;Engineering Research Center of Frontier Technologies for Low-Carbon SteelmakingMinistry of Education,Shenyang 110819,Liaoning,China)

机构地区：[1]东北大学国家环境保护生态工业重点实验室,辽宁沈阳110819 [2]东北大学低碳钢铁前沿技术研究院,辽宁沈阳110819 [3]低碳钢铁前沿技术教育部工程研究中心,辽宁沈阳110819

出　　处：《钢铁》2023年第9期59-68,共10页Iron and Steel

基　　金：能源基金会资助项目(G-2203-33654);辽宁省“兴辽英才计划”资助项目(XLYC2002072);中央高校基本科研业务费资助项目(N2225047)。

摘　　要：2020年9月22日,中国在第七十五届联合国大会上提出,二氧化碳排放力争于2030年前达到峰值,努力争取2060年前实现碳中和。钢铁行业深度脱碳是实现“碳达峰”和“碳中和”的必经之路,是应对气候变化、缓解能源危机、推动绿色健康发展的重要战略举措。绿色低碳发展是钢铁行业实现转型升级高质量发展的关键,也是中国实现碳达峰碳中和目标的重要支撑。分析了中国钢铁行业碳排放现状,对比了主要产钢国家钢铁行业碳中和目标及实施路径,采用动态物质流分析方法构建了钢铁需求量模型、废钢回收量模型并预测了中国到2060年的钢铁需求量和废钢资源量。结果显示,中国的钢铁需求量将在2030年和2060年分别下降至8.78亿t和5.43亿t,2030年国内废钢产量约为4.2亿t,2055年以后,废钢产量将逐渐下降,但仍将保持在4亿t以上。在动态物质流分析结果的基础上,使用情景分析方法,构建了钢铁行业碳排放模型,分析了钢铁行业的节能降碳潜力;基于钢铁行业碳中和路径分析模型制定了中国钢铁行业碳达峰碳中和时间表和路线图,指出中国钢铁行业在实现碳中和之前要经历粗钢产量波动下行-控碳、粗钢产量下降-减碳、粗钢产量处于低值平台期-低碳、粗钢产量稳定于低值-碳中和等4个阶段,为中国钢铁行业实现碳达峰碳中和目标提供重要指导和行动方案。On September 22,2020,China announced at the 75th United Nations General Assembly that it aims to peak its carbon dioxide emissions before 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality before 2060.The deep decarbonization of the steel industry is a necessary step to achieve these goals,as well as an important strategic measure for addressing climate change,alleviating energy crises,and promoting green and healthy development.Green and low-carbon development is the key to the transformation,upgrading,and high-quality development of the steel industry,as well as an important support for China′s carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals.An analysis was conducted on the current carbon emissions of China′s steel industry,followed by a comparison of the carbon neutrality goals and implementation paths of major steel-producing countries.Using dynamic material flow analysis methods,a steel demand model and a scrap recycling model were constructed,and China′s steel demand and scrap resources were predicted until 2060.The results indicated that China′s steel demand will decrease to 878 million tons and 543 million tons in 2030 and 2060,respectively.Domestic scrap production will be approximately 420 million tons in 2030,gradually decreasing after 2055 but remaining above 400 million tons.Based on the dynamic material flow analysis results and scenario analysis methods,a carbon emissions model for the steel industry was constructed,potential for energy conservation and emission reduction in the steel industry were analyzed,and a timetable and roadmap were formulated for China′s steel industry to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality based on the carbon neutrality path analysis model of the steel industry,pointing out that the Chinese steel industry will experience four stages before achieving carbon neutrality:fluctuations and control of crude steel production-carbon control,reduction of crude steel production-emission reduction,period of crude steel production at a low level plateau-low carbon,and stabilization of crude st

关 键 词：钢铁行业 二氧化碳 碳达峰 碳中和 路线图 

分 类 号：F426.31[经济管理—产业经济] X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程]