1951—2020年贵州均一化气温序列构建及初步分析  

Construction and Analysis of Homogenized Temperature Series in Guizhou from 1951 to 2020

作　　者：吴兴洋[1] 陈怡璇 支亚京 廖留峰 郭茜 WU Xingyang;CHEN Yixuan;ZHI Yajing;LIAO Liufeng;GUO Xi(Guizhou Meteorological Information Center,Guiyang 550002,China;Guizhou Ecological Remote Sensing Center,Guiyang 550002,China)

机构地区：[1]贵州省气象信息中心,贵州贵阳550002 [2]贵州省生态遥感中心,贵州贵阳550002

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2023年第5期152-158,共7页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

基　　金：中国气象局风云卫星应用先行计划项目(FY-APP-2021.0208);喀斯特石漠化植被生态质量变化对气候因子的响应(黔科合基础-ZK[2022]一般273)。

摘　　要：基于质控的小时气温资料,根据不同时期气象观测规范、气象站历史沿革、资料完整性、均一化影响和空间分布代表性,在贵州区域选取44站构建1951—2020年均一化气温序列。应用趋势系数法分析贵州区域气温倾向率,累年平均值分析气温的升降时段,T检验检测气温变化稳定性,Yamamoto、Mann-kendall法检测气温突变年份,结果表明:近70年和近60年贵州区域气温分别以0.13、0.17℃/10 a的速率升温。1951—1986年处于降温时期,1987年开始升温,2012年后升温发生突变,1984、2015、2016年气温与其他年份气温存在显著差异。贵州各区域气温倾向率差异较大,近70年、60年变化区间分别在0.06~0.19、0.09~0.26℃/10 a。城市自身及周边地区气温存在增温效应,县级观测站到省行政中心所在地,气温升温速率差异在0.03~0.08℃/10 a。升温速率总体上呈现南低北高、自东向西逐渐增大的分布。升温主要是最低气温升温导致,各区域升温速率差异原因与地理区位、城市热岛效应、生态环境、水汽差异有关。Based on the quality-controlled hourly temperature data,according to the meteorological observation specifications in different periods,historical evolution of meteorological stations,data integrity,homogenization impact and spatial distribution representativeness,44 stations were selected in Guizhou to construct homogenization temperature series from 1951 to 2020.The trend coefficient method was used to analyze the temperature tendency rate in Guizhou,the average of accumulated annual was used to analyze the rising and falling periods of temperature,the T-test was used to detect the stability of temperature changes,Yamamoto and the Mann-Kendall method were used to detect the year of temperature mutation.The results showed that:the temperature in Guizhou increased at a rate of 0.13℃/10 a and 0.17 C/10 a in the past 70 years and 60 years.It was cooling from 1951 to 1986,began to warm in 1987,and increased sharply after 2012.The temperature in 1984,2015 and 2016 were significantly different from that in other years.There were great differences in temperature trend rate in various regions of Guizhou,and the variation ranges in recent 70 year and 60 year are 0.06-0.19/10 a and 0.09-0.26℃/10 a respectively.There was a warming effect on the temperature temperature of the city and its surrounding areas.The temperature rise rate difference was 0.03-0.08 C/10 a from the county-level observation station to the provincial center.The temperature rise rate showed that the linear tendency rate of annual temperature was lower in the south than that in the north,and gradually increased from east to west in Guizhou.The temperature rise was mainly caused by the increase of the minimum temperature.The reasons for the differences of the temperature rise rate of each region was related to geographical location,urban heat island effect,ecological environment and water vapor differences.

关 键 词：贵州 气温 均一化 气温倾向率 变化 

分 类 号：P423[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]