气候变暖对新疆棉花种植气候适宜性分区的影响  

Impact of Climate Warming on Cotton Cultivation in Xinjiang

作　　者：张山清 普宗朝[2] 冯志敏 蒋平安[4] 火勋国 吉春容 武鹏飞 ZHANG Shanqing;PU Zongchao;FENG Zhimin;JIANG Ping’an;HUO Xunguo;JI Chunrong;WU Pengfei(Xinjiang Agro-Meteorological Observatory/Information Centre of Xinjiang Xingnong-Net,Urumqi 830002,China;Urumqi Meteorological Bureau of Xinjiang,Urumqi 830002,China;Xinjiang Eco-Meteorological and Satellite Remote Sensing Center,Urumqi 830011,China;Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi 830052,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆兴农网信息中心/新疆农业气象台,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [2]乌鲁木齐市气象局,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [3]新疆生态气象和卫星遥感中心,乌鲁木齐830011 [4]新疆农业大学,新疆乌鲁木齐830052

出　　处：《沙漠与绿洲气象》2023年第5期167-174,共8页Desert and Oasis Meteorology

基　　金：新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金“气候变暖对新疆棉花种植气候适宜性的影响及区划”(2021D01A171);国家自然科学基金“滴灌模式下绿洲棉田干旱发生与致灾解除过程特征及其临界条件研究”(41975146)。

摘　　要：基于新疆102个气象站1961—2020年历史气候资料,使用统计学方法以及ArcGIS的空间插值技术,在对近60年影响新疆棉花种植的主要气候因子,≥10℃积温、无霜冻期和7月平均气温时空变化分析的基础上,结合新疆棉花种植气候适宜性区划指标,就不同品种熟性棉花适宜种植分区的变化进行研究。结果表明:1961—2020年新疆≥10℃积温、无霜冻期和7月平均气温呈显著增多或上升趋势,并且上述要素均于1997年发生突变。受其影响,1997年后较之前,新疆不同品种熟性棉花适宜种植区的海拔上限均不同程度的抬升,其中,准噶尔盆地和吐鲁番、哈密盆地棉区海拔上限抬升150~200 m,塔里木盆地棉区抬升50~100 m;气候变暖使新疆宜棉区扩大,不宜棉区缩小,且部分棉区适宜种植的棉花品种向生育期较长、产量较高的品种转变,这对促进新疆棉花的发展十分有利。Based on the historical climatic data of 102 meteorological stations in Xinjiang from 1961 to 2020,the spatio-temporal variation of≥10℃accumulated temperature,frost free period and mean temperature in July of cotton planting in Xinjiang in recent 60 years was analyzed by using statistical method and spatial interpolation technique of ArcGIS.Based on the regionalization index of cotton planting climate suitability in Xinjiang,the change of suitable planting zones for different varieties of cotton was studied.The main results are as the follows:The spatial distribution of≥10℃accumulated temperature,frost free period and July mean temperature of Xinjiang generally presents the characteristics of more in southern Xinjiang and less in northern Xinjiang;more in the plains and basins and less in the mountainous areas.In the background of global warming,the three indicators showed an increasing trend in recent 60 years,and they all had mutation in 1997.After the mutation,≥10℃accumulated temperature,frost free period and July average temperature in Xinjiang increased by 268.2℃·d,13.5 d and 0.8℃respectively.Affected by them,the upper altitude limit of the suitable planting zones for different varieties of cotton in various cotton zones in Xinjiang has risen in varying degrees after 1997.Among them,the upper altitude limit of the cotton planting zone in Junggar Basin,Turpan and Hami Basin has risen by 150-200 m,and the cotton zone in Tarim Basin has risen by 50-100 m.By climate warming,the suitable cotton zones in Xinjiang expands,while the unsuitable cotton zones shrinks.In addition,the suitable planting varieties in some cotton areas changes to those with longer growing period and higher yield,which is very beneficial to promoting the development of cotton in Xinjiang.

关 键 词：气候变暖 区划指标 棉花气候区划 新疆 

分 类 号：S162.5[农业科学—农业气象学]