中国农村居民点用地变化影响因素研究  

Study on the Influencing Factors of Rural Settlements Land Use Changes in China

作　　者：陈春[1] 刘坤[1] 周书宏 CHEN Chun;LIU Kun;ZHOU Shuhong

机构地区：[1]重庆交通大学智慧城市学院

出　　处：《小城镇建设》2023年第10期5-11,共7页DEVELOPMENT OF SMALL CITIES & TOWNS

基　　金：国家重点研发项目“村镇聚落空间重构数字化模拟及评价模型”(编号:2018YFD1100300)。

摘　　要：本文旨在以大尺度长时间序列跟踪研究我国农村居民点用地变化,分析其影响因素。采用1990—2015年省级面板数据,对全国层面的农村居民点演化特征进行研究,从社会、自然、区位3类因素选择变量,构建农村居民点用地影响驱动力模型,分析核心因素对农村居民点用地的影响作用,同时针对政策因素对农村居民点的影响作用作出简要阐述。结果表明:1)全国层面的农村居民点用地变化由农村人口数量、地区GDP、年均降水、海拔、到河流距离5个核心驱动变量决定;2)5个核心变量对我国农村居民点用地变化的作用大小为农村人口数量>年均降水>海拔>到河流距离>地区GDP;3)农村人口在西南地区的作用强度最大,地区GDP、海拔、到河流距离在东北地区作用强度最大,年均降水在华东地区作用强度最大。This paper aims to track the changes in rural settlement land use in China with large-scale and long-term time series data,to analyze its influencing factors.Using provincial-level panel data from 1990 to 2015,this study investigates the evolution characteristics of rural residential areas at the national level.Variables are selected from three categories of factors:social,natural,and location,and the driving force model for the impact of rural residential land is constructed.The results indicate that:1)The changes in rural residential land use at the national level are determined by five core driving variables:rural population,regional GDP,annual precipitation,altitude,and distance to rivers;2)The impact of the five core variables on the changes in rural residential land use in China is as follows:rural population>annual precipitation>altitude>distance to rivers>regional GDP;3)The rural population has the strongest impact in the southwest region,with regional GDP,altitude,and distance to rivers having the strongest impact in the northeast region,and annual precipitation having the strongest impact in East China.

关 键 词：农村居民点用地 影响因素 驱动力 时间序列 

分 类 号：TU982.29[建筑科学—城市规划与设计]