人民币跨境使用对汇率传导的影响研究  

Research on the Impact of Cross-border Use of RMB on Exchange Rate Transmission

作　　者：牟灵芝 周宇[1] MOU Ling-zhi;ZHOU Yu(Institute of World Economy,Shanghai Academy of Social Science,Shanghai 200235,China)

机构地区：[1]上海社会科学院世界经济研究所,上海200235

出　　处：《技术经济与管理研究》2023年第10期1-5,共5页Journal of Technical Economics & Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大课题(18ZDA090)。

摘　　要：近年来,人民币在跨境贸易和投融资中的使用水平不断提升,这是否对汇率传导产生影响?区分汇率贸易传导和汇率金融传导两种不同的传导机制,通过理论分析和基于跨国面板的实证分析发现,汇率贸易传导和汇率金融传导均对宏观经济变量影响显著,两者对出口、投资和GDP的作用方向则相反;人民币跨境使用可抑制汇率波动对宏观经济变量的传导,且人民币跨境使用水平越高,抑制作用越大;其中,出口本币计价结算可弱化本币升值通过汇率贸易传导造成的出口、投资和GDP下滑,本币外债可削弱本币升值通过汇率金融传导带来的投资、出口和GDP增长。因此,应更为辩证地看待人民币国际化和汇率市场化改革的关系,审时度势、协同推进。In recent years,the use of RMB in cross-border trade,investment and financing has been increasing.Does this have an impact on exchange rate transmission?This paper distinguishes two different transmission mechanisms of exchange rate:The trade channel and the financial channel of exchange rates.Through theoretical analysis and empirical analysis based on transnational panels,it is found that both the trade channel and the financial channel of exchange rates exist and have significant effects on macroeconomic variables,but they have opposite effects on export,investment and GDP.The cross-border use of RMB can inhibit the transmission of exchange rate fluctuations to macroeconomic variables,and the higher the level of cross-border use of RMB,the greater the inhibitory effect.The local currency invoicing and settlement of exports can weaken the decline in exports,investment and GDP caused bylocal currency appreciation through the trade channel of exchange rates,and the local currency external debt can weaken the investment,export and GDP growth caused by local currency appreciation through the financialchannel of exchange rates.Therefore,the relationship between RMB internati-onalization and market-oriented exchange rate reform should be viewed more dialectically,and the situation should be evaluated and coordinated.

关 键 词：人民币计价结算 人民币外债 汇率贸易传导 汇率金融传导 

分 类 号：F822[经济管理—财政学]