抚仙湖水位变化特征及影响因素研究  

Water level variation characteristics and influencing factors of Fuxian Lake

作　　者：邓欣 司源 杨坪宏 刘晓波[2] 董飞[2] 李廷真 DENG Xin;SI Yuan;YANG Pinghong;LIU Xiaobo;DONG Fei;LI Tingzhen(School of Environmental and Chemical Engineering,Chongqing Three Gorges University,Chongqing 404020,China;State Key Laboratory of Simulation and Regulation of Water Cycle in River Basin,China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research,Beijing 100038,China;Yunnan Hydrology and Water Resources Bureau,Kunming 650106,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆三峡学院环境与化学工程学院,重庆404020 [2]中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室,北京100038 [3]云南省水文水资源局,云南昆明650106

出　　处：《人民长江》2023年第10期44-51,共8页Yangtze River

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFC3200903);中国水科院基本科研业务费项目(WE110145B0072021,WR0145B022021,WE0145B032021)。

摘　　要：近年来抚仙湖水位出现严重下降现象,研究其水位变化特征及影响因素对维持湖泊生态系统稳定有重要意义。基于1953~2020年抚仙湖流域水文气象数据,采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验、累积距平、Pettitt突变检验等方法分析水位年际、年内变化规律,用水量平衡法分析湖泊水量变化,用累积量斜率变化率法探究气候变化与人类活动对抚仙湖流域径流的影响。结果表明:①1953~2020年抚仙湖年际水位变化呈上升-下降-上升-下降趋势,季节性变化特征为秋季水位高、夏季水位低;②与基准期1962~1974年相比,1975~2008年气候变化和人类活动对径流的贡献率分别为10.0%和90.0%,2009~2020年的贡献率分别为18.1%和81.9%,人类活动影响占主导作用但近年来贡献率有所降低;③人类活动对径流贡献率的减少与抚仙湖流域取水许可管理、工业园区搬迁、引调水工程运行等因素有关,减少人类活动对湖泊水位的影响,有利于保障抚仙湖水位稳定。In recent years,the water level of Fuxian Lake has decreased seriously.It is of great significance to study the characteristics and influencing factors of water level change for maintaining the stability of the lake ecosystem.The Mann-Kendall trend test,cumulative anomaly test,and Pettitt mutation test were used to analyze the inter-annual and intra-annual variation patterns of water level.The water balance method was used to analyze the changes in lake water,and the slope change ratio of cumulative quantity(SCRCQ)method was used to investigate the effects of climate change and human activities on the runoff of the Fuxian Lake basin from 1953 to 2020.The findings indicated that:①The interannual water level of Fuxian Lake displayed a rising-declining-rising-declining pattern from 1953 to 2020,with seasonal fluctuations typified by the high water level in the fall and low water level in the summer.②In comparison to the baseline period of 1962~1974,the contribution rates of climate change and human activities to runoff were 10.0%and 90.0%during 1975~2008,and 18.1%and 81.9%during 2009~2020.The contribution rate of human activities played a dominant role but decreased somewhat in recent years.The reduction of the human activities contribution rate to runoff was related to managing water abstraction permits in the Fuxian Lake basin,relocating industrial parks,and operating water diversion projects.Reducing the influence of human activities could be beneficial to ensuring the stability of Fuxian Lake s water level.

关 键 词：水位变化特征 水量平衡 累积量斜率变化率 气候变化 人类活动 抚仙湖 

分 类 号：P343.3[天文地球—水文科学]