中国人口老龄化进程及其经济动因的区域差异  

Regional Differences in the Process of Population Aging in China and Its Economic Dynamics

作　　者：黄翌[1] 李陈 王悦 HUANG Yi;LI Chen;WANG Yue(School of Geographic Sciences,Nantong University,Nantong 226019,China;School of Management,Shanghai University of Engineering Science,Shanghai 201620,China)

机构地区：[1]南通大学地理科学学院,江苏南通226019 [2]上海工程技术大学管理学院,上海201620

出　　处：《地域研究与开发》2023年第5期167-173,共7页Areal Research and Development

基　　金：上海市浦江人才计划项目(2021PJC065)。

摘　　要：基于人口普查和经济统计数据,依据人口统计学理论和方法,采用薄板样条函数分析经济因素通过影响生育、迁移、预期寿命对中国人口老龄化的间接作用及两两协同作用。结果表明:我国自西向东形成了低—高—中—高—低的波浪型人口老龄化地理格局,2000—2020年区域差异前期缩小后期扩大。根据预期寿命、生育率、迁移率差异,各地老龄化进程可归纳为18种模式。预期寿命、生育率、人口迁移三大因素与老龄化的关系均存在边际效应和累积效应,经济对三大因素的影响具有单侧、双侧边际效应,导致了老龄化波浪型地理格局的形成。经济对生育和预期寿命的固化作用以及对迁移的方向性配置导致了老龄化率区域差异先缩小后扩大。Based on population census data and economic statistic data,this study employed demography methods and thin-plate spline analysis to explore the indirect and synergistic effects of the economy on aging,specifically through its influence on fertility,migration,and life expectancy.The results revealed a distinct geographical pattern of low-high-medium-high-low aging rates from west to east in China.From 2000 to 2020,regional differences narrowed in the early stage and expanded in the later stage.The aging process in various parts of China was categorized into 18 groups.The findings demonstrated the presence of both marginal effects and cumulative effects in the relationships between life expectancy,fertility rate,population migration,and aging rate.Furthermore,unilateral and bilateral marginal effects were observed between the economy and these three factors,resulting in a unique“wave-shaped”geographical pattern of aging.This pattern arises from the combined impacts of the economy on fertility and life expectancy,as well as the directional allocation of migration,all of which contribute to the initial narrowing and subsequent expansion of regional differences in aging rates.

关 键 词：老龄化 经济 边际效应 生育 迁移 预期寿命 

分 类 号：K901.3[历史地理—人文地理学]