基于独立样本的设计波高推算及其应用  

Calculation of design wave height and its application base on independent sample

作　　者：刘桂林[1] 房丹 宋时春 刘泊湖 LIU Guilin;FANG Dan;SONG Shichun;LIU Bohu(College of Engineering,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266000,China;Qingdao Military-Civilian Integration Development Group Co.Ltd.,Qingdao 266100,China;Qingdao Haida Marine Engineering Technological Development Co.Ltd.,Qingdao 266100,China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学工程学院,山东青岛266000 [2]青岛军民融合发展集团有限公司,山东青岛266100 [3]青岛海大海洋工程技术开发有限公司,山东青岛266100

出　　处：《海洋学研究》2023年第3期73-82,共10页Journal of Marine Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(52071306);山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2019MEE050)。

摘　　要：极值样本的选取和分布模型的确定是设计波高推算中的两个关键环节。使用阈值法选取波高过阈样本作为极值样本时,常用标准风暴长度法对超出量序列进行“去聚类”处理,以使样本符合独立性标准。然而标准风暴长度法中的标准风暴长度需要人为选择,增加了取样结果的不确定性。本文提出了一种自动的标准风暴长度估计方法,并基于该方法选取了粤西海域的波高过阈样本。波高过阈样本具有尖峰、厚尾的统计特征,为了更准确地拟合该样本,本文基于组合模型原理构建了一种新的分布模型——Gumbel-Pareto分布模型,并用该模型进行了粤西海域的设计波高推算,结果表明Gumbel-Pareto分布对波高过阈样本的拟合优度比Gumbel分布和广义Pareto分布更高,可以为大型海洋工程设计波高的确定提供参考。The selection of extreme value samples and the determination of distribution models are two crucial aspects when calculating the design wave height.When selecting extreme value samples using the peaks over threshold method,the standard storm length method is commonly used to“de-cluster”the exceedances in order to make the samples conform to independence standards.However,the crucial parameter in the standard storm length method needs to be manually selected which increases the uncertainty of samples.In this paper,an automatic standard storm length estimation method is proposed,then the wave height peaks over threshold sample in the western Guangdong sea area is selected based on this method.To accurately fit the sharp peak and heavy tail of the wave height peaks over threshold sample,the combined distribution method is used to construct a new model:Gumbel-Pareto distribution model.Based on this model,the design wave height calculation is carried out in the western Guangdong sea area.The result shows that the goodness of fit for the Gumbel-Pareto distribution model to the wave height peaks over threshold sample is higher than that of Gumbel distribution and Generalized Pareto distribution,which can offer a reasonable reference for the design of large offshore engineering.

关 键 词：独立样本 标准风暴长度 Gumbel-Pareto分布 设计波高推算 

分 类 号：P731.22[天文地球—海洋科学]