我国茶叶出口价格波动特征及趋势预测分析  

Analysis of Fluctuation Characteristics and Trend Forecast of China’s Tea Export Prices

作　　者：王海松 武玉环 张晓薇 WANG Haisong;WU Yuhuan;ZHANG Xiaowei(Hebei University of Water Resources and Electric Engineering Cangzhou,Hebei 061000)

机构地区：[1]河北水利电力学院,河北沧州061000

出　　处：《中国商论》2023年第19期67-71,共5页China Journal of Commerce

基　　金：教育部产学合作协同育人项目(220902443223423);河北省社会科学发展研究课题(20230303051);河北省高等学校人文社会科学研究项目(SZ2023166);河北水利电力学院博士基金项目(SYBJ2110);沧州市科学技术局指导项目(213206004);沧州市社科联项目(2022104)。

摘　　要：近年来,茶叶出口价格呈现上涨趋势,但短期存在较剧烈波动情况,研究茶叶出口价格长期趋势及短期波动对茶叶产区优化产业结构、提高茶叶出口创收能力、实现茶叶产业科学及可持续发展具有重要的现实意义。本文根据2000年1月—2022年8月我国海关茶叶出口数据,利用HP、BP滤波分析对茶叶出口价格序列进行分解,获得茶叶出口价格的长期趋势和短期波动特征,同时利用自回归移动平均模型对未来茶叶出口月度价格进行科学预测。结果显示:(1)我国茶叶出口价格具有一定的季节性波动规律,并存在规律性,这种规律性和茶树的生长周期相吻合;(2)茶叶出口价格在2000—2003年出现大幅度下滑,2003年至今呈现波动中上升趋势;(3)2000—2022年,我国茶叶出口价格大体经历了4次波动,波动周期5年左右;(4)未来2年内,我国茶叶出口价格将呈现波动中上升趋势。基于此,本文提出提高茶叶出口品质,提高茶叶出口议价能力;建立健全茶叶出口市场风险预警与防范机制;控制茶叶种植成本,降低出口费用;进行市场细分,完善国际市场布局等方面的政策建议,以供参考。In recent years,tea export prices have shown an upward trend,but short-term fluctuations are dramatic.The study of long-term trends in tea export prices and short-term fluctuations of the tea-producing areas to optimize the industrial structures,improve the ability of tea exports to generate income,and achieve the scientific and sustainable development of the tea industry is of great practical significance.This paper,according to China’s customs tea export data from January 2000 to August 2022,uses HP and BP filter analysis to decompose the tea export price series,obtains the long-term trends and short-term fluctuation characteristics of the tea export prices,and meanwhile,uses the autoregressive moving average model to predict the future monthly prices of tea exports scientifically.The results show that:1)China’s tea export prices have a certain seasonal fluctuation pattern with regularity,which coincides with the growth cycle of the tea trees;2)tea export prices from 2000 to 2003 show a substantial decline,while from 2003 to the present the prices have the upward trend;3)from 2000 to 2022,China’s tea export prices have experienced four fluctuations,with a fluctuation cycle of about five years;4)in the next 2 years,China’s tea export prices will show an upward trend in fluctuations.Accordingly,it is proposed to improve the quality of tea exports,improve the bargaining power of tea exports;establish and improve risk early warning and prevention mechanisms for the tea export markets;control the costs of tea planting,reduce the costs of exports;do market segmentation and improve the layout of the international markets and other suggestions,for reference.

关 键 词：茶叶 出口价格 HP滤波分析 BP滤波分析 ARIMA 

分 类 号：F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易]