风险与绩效双轮驱动下地方政府隐性债务联动治理研究  

Research on the linkage governance of implicit debt of local government from the dual perspectives of risk and performance

作　　者：洪源[1] 张智 龙立 HONG Yuan;ZHANG Zhi;LONG Li(School of Economy and Trade,Hunan University,Changsha 410006,China;School of Accounting,Hunan University of Technology and Business,Changsha 410205,China)

机构地区：[1]湖南大学经济与贸易学院,湖南长沙410006 [2]湖南工商大学会计学院,湖南长沙410205

出　　处：《中国软科学》2023年第7期76-88,共13页China Soft Science

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目“地方政府隐性债务显性化的可持续性评估与优化路径研究”(22BJY079);教育部人文社科研究青年基金项目“风险与绩效双轮驱动下地方政府债务联动治理机制研究”(21YJC790045)。

摘　　要：基于软计算方法集成技术,分别采用CRITIC-TOPSIS集成方法和Global超效率DEA方法,对地方政府隐性债务的风险与绩效状况进行实证评价。在此基础上,采用空间面板联立方程模型对隐性债务风险和绩效的互动相关性进行实证检验。研究发现:从评价结果来看,我国各地区隐性债务风险在时间维度呈现不断上升的趋势,空间维度呈现出较明显的“东低西高”分布态势,而各地区的隐性债务绩效则恰好相反,在时间维度呈先出不断下降的趋势,空间维度则呈现出较明显的“东高西低”的分布态势。与此同时,从隐性债务的风险与绩效的互动相关性来看,两者之间存在相互影响的负相关关系,并且这种互动相关性还具有了较为显著的空间关联特征。最后,从风险与绩效双轮驱动的导向出发,依据不同地区所处的隐性债务风险与绩效互动相关类型,系统地采用债务存量风险防范化解、债务使用绩效动态优化、跨区域债务风险与绩效空间联动治理等一揽子差异性组合政策,有针对性地提出地方政府隐性债务联动治理策略。Under the soft computing method integration technology,this paper uses CRITIC-TOPSIS integration method and global super-efficiency DEA method to evaluate the risk and performance of local government implicit debt.Further,we use spatial panel simultaneous equation model and panel threshold effect model to test the interaction between implicit debt risk and performance.The result shows the implicit debt risk of each region shows an overall rising trend in the time dimension and a trend of “lower in the east and higher in the west” in the regional distribution;quite the contrary,the implicit debt performance of each region has been declining as time goes by,and shows an obvious regional distribution trend of “higher in the east and lower in the west”.Meanwhile,from the perspective of the interactive correlation between the risk and performance of implicit debt,there is a negative correlation between them.Moreover,this correlation also has a more significant spatial correlation characteristic.Finally,starting from the dual wheel drive of risk and performance,according to the types of interaction between implicit debt risk and performance in different regions,a package of differential combination policies such as debt stock risk prevention and resolution,debt performance dynamic optimization,cross regional debt risk and performance space linkage governance are adopted to propose targeted local government implicit debt linkage governance strategies.

关 键 词：地方政府隐性债务 风险 绩效 联动治理 

分 类 号：F810.7[经济管理—财政学]