“一带一路”天然气贸易复杂网络演化特征及影响因素研究  

Evolution characteristics and influencing factors of natural gas trade complex network under the Belt and Road Initiative

作　　者：张珺[1] 梁天丽 ZHANG Jun;LIANG Tiani(School of Economics,Jinan University,Guangzhou,Guangdong 510632,China)

机构地区：[1]暨南大学经济学院,广东广州510632

出　　处：《世界石油工业》2023年第5期11-18,25,共9页World Petroleum Industry

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般规划项目“‘一带一路’能源投资背景下我国天然气供应安全研究”(20BGJ034)。

摘　　要：基于复杂网络理论,从网络特征、节点特征和社区模块等方面分析“一带一路”沿线国家管道天然气(PNG)和液化天然气(LNG)贸易网络的演化过程。运用二次指派程序(QAP)从经济发展、地理位置、语言文化和能源消耗4个维度探究驱动“一带一路”天然气贸易网络演化的影响因素。研究发现,地理位置和能源消耗因素更能促进沿线天然气贸易规模的扩大。2001—2021年期间“一带一路”管道天然气的贸易网络演化格局固定,俄罗斯一家独大。管道天然气贸易的网络密度和互惠度总体高于液化天然气贸易,但后者的发展速度和贸易范围均优于前者。“一带一路”天然气贸易网络的伙伴国数量呈幂律分布,但该特征逐年减弱。研究结果有助于了解天然气贸易的演进规律,为能源贸易尤其是清洁能源贸易决策提供参考。Based on the complex network theory,the evolution process of the pipeline natural gas(PNG)and liquefied natural gas(LNG)trade networks of countries along the Belt and Road are further explored from the aspects of network characteristics,node characteristics and community modules.The quadratic assignment procedure(QAP)was used to explore the influencing factors of the evolution of the Belt and Road natural gas trade network from four dimensions of economic development,geographical location,language culture and energy consumption as driving factors.It shows that geographical location and energy consumption factors can better promote the expansion of natural gas trade scale along the Belt and Road.From 2001 to 2021,the evolution pattern of the Belt and Road PNG trade network was fixed,and Russia was the largest.The trade network density and reciprocity of PNG are generally higher than that of LNG,but the latter's development speed and trade scope are better than the former.The number of partner countries in the Belt and Road natural gas trade network is power-law distribution,but this feature is weaken-ing year by year.The research results help to understand the evolution pattern of natural gas trade and provide reference for deci-sion-making of energy trade,especially clean energy trade.

关 键 词：天然气 复杂网络 一带一路 演化格局 QAP回归分析 

分 类 号：F113.3[经济管理—国际贸易]