不同排放情景下祁连山地区植被净初级生产力变化特征分析  

THE VARIATION CHARACTERISTICS OF NET PRIMARY PRODUCTIVITY OF IN QILIAN MOUNTAINS UNDER DIFFERENT EMISSION SCENARIOS

作　　者：李全平 刘刚 高君元 俞君贤 LI Quan-ping(Haibei animal Husbandry Meteorological Test Station of Qinghai Province Haibei,Haibei Qinghai 810299,China)

机构地区：[1]青海省海北牧业气象试验站,青海海北810299 [2]成都信息工程大学,四川成都610225 [3]海晏县气象局,青海海晏810299

出　　处：《青海草业》2023年第3期54-62,共9页Qinghai Prataculture

摘　　要：为了分析祁连山地区2021~2050年不同排放情景对祁连山植被净初级生产力的影响,本文使用生物地球化学模型(Biome-BGC),模拟分析了祁连山地区在SSP126、SSP245、SSP5853种排放情景下2021~2050年草地植被净初级生产力时空分布特征、年际变化趋势。结果表明:3种排放情景下,祁连山地区植被净初级生产力都呈现增加趋势,SSP126情景、SSP245情景下2021~2050年祁连山地区植被覆盖状况在中部和西部地区存在明显增加趋势。SSP585情景在2041~2050年更利于植被生长,2021~2040年不利于植被生长。空间分布呈现中部高、两头低的分布特征,西北与东南相比偏低10~20 gC/m^(2)/a,高值区主要集中在青海省海北州及海西州天峻县境内,NPP普遍处于60~180 gC/m^(2)/a左右;低值区位于青海省海西州西南部,NPP值小于20 gC/m^(2)/a。In order to analyze the impact of climate change on the net primary productivity under different emission scenarios in the Qilian Mountains from 2021 to 2050,this study used a biogeochemical model(Biome-BGC)to simulate and analyze the spatial distribution characteristics and the interannual variation of net primary productivity in the Qilian Mountains from 2021 to 2050 under three emission scenarios of SSP126,SSP245 and SSP585.The study showed:the net primary productivity showed an increasing trend in the Qilian Mountains under the three emission scenarios.There was a significant increasing trend of vegetation cover status in the central and western regions under SSP126 scenario,SSP245 scenario in the Qilian Mountains from 2021 to 2050.Under the SSP585 simulation scenario vegetation was more favorable for growth between 2041~2050 and vegetation was less favorable for growth between 2021~2040.The spatial distribution showed the distribution characteristics of high in the middle and low at both ends,and the northwest was 10~20 gC/m^(2)/a lower compared with the southeast,and the high value area was mainly concentrated in Haibei Prefecture and Tianjun county of Haixi Prefecture,Qinghai Province,with NPP generally around 60~180 gC/m^(2)/a;the low value area was in the southwest of Haixi Prefecture,Qinghai Province,with NPP value less than 20 gC/m^(2)/a.

关 键 词：祁连山地区 Biome-BGC模型 时空分布 年际变化 

分 类 号：S812[农业科学—草业科学]