“中国制造2025”试点示范城市建设对城市绿色发展效率的影响  

Impact of‘Made in China 2025’pilot demonstration city construction on urban green development efficiency

作　　者：王伟龙 王健龙 谢成兴 李中锋[1] WANG Weilong;WANG Jianlong;XIE Chengxing;LI Zhongfeng(School of Economics,Sichuan University,Chengdu Sichuan 610064,China)

机构地区：[1]四川大学经济学院,四川成都610065

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2023年第9期147-158,共12页China Population,Resources and Environment

摘　　要：制造业转型升级以智能制造和绿色制造为支撑,是打破中国制造业大而不强、低端锁定的核心途径,具有赋能绿色发展的巨大潜力。通过制造业转型升级推进城市绿色发展是中国产业政策制定和实施面临的严峻考验。该研究聚焦“中国制造2025”试点示范城市建设这一产业试点政策,探究其能否以及如何赋能城市绿色发展?鉴于此,该研究基于2004—2020年中国281个地级市面板数据,以2016和2017年设立的30个“中国制造2025”试点示范城市作为准自然实验,在分析其影响绿色发展的理论机制基础上,应用多期双重差分法检验“中国制造2025”试点示范城市建设对城市绿色发展效率的影响,并考察其异质性和空间溢出性。研究发现:“中国制造2025”试点示范城市建设显著驱动了城市绿色发展效率提升,且该结论在经过多轮稳健性检验后仍然成立。异质性分析表明在高制造业集聚城市、高工业智能化城市和高数字金融发展城市开展试点政策将对城市绿色发展效率提升产生“锦上添花”的影响。机制分析表明:“中国制造2025”试点示范城市建设主要通过促进绿色技术进步、引导产业升级和强化环境监管提升城市绿色发展效率,研究期间内试点政策尚未触发驱动城市绿色发展效率提升的能源消费结构优化机制。空间溢出结果表明“中国制造2025”试点示范城市建设对本市和邻近城市绿色发展效率提升均有显著推动作用。为此,在“中国制造2025”试点示范城市建设过程中,应作好试点城市的经验总结与推广,并切实结合城市发展差距,探索制造业转型促进城市绿色发展效率提升的多维路径,培育城市绿色增长极。The transformation and upgrading of China’s manufacturing industry,with intelligent manufacturing and green manufacturing as its core,is the key to breaking bottleneck in this industry,which is big but not strong,low-end,and has great potential to empower green development.At the stage of high-quality development,promoting urban green development through the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry is a severe test for China’s industrial policy formulation and implementation.Focusing on the‘Made in China 2025’pilot demonstration city construction,this study attempted to explore whether and how the pilot policy could empower urban green development.The study used panel data from 281 prefecture-level cities in China from 2004 to 2020 and 30 pilot demonstration cities of‘Made in China 2025,’established in 2016 and 2017,as a quasi-natural experiment to analyze the theoretical mechanisms influencing green development.A multi-period difference-in-differences method was applied to examine the impact of‘Made in China 2025’pilot demonstration cities on urban green development efficiency and to investigate its heterogeneity and spatial spillover.It was found that these cities significantly drove urban green development efficiency,and this finding still held after multiple rounds of robustness tests.Heterogeneity analysis showed that in cities with high manufacturing concentration,high industrial intelligence,and high digital financial development,the pilot policies would have an‘icing on the cake’effect on urban green development efficiency.The mechanism analysis indicated that the pilot demonstration cities mainly promoted green technology progress,guided industrial upgrading,and strengthened environmental regulation to enhance urban green development efficiency.During the study period,the pilot policies had yet to trigger the mechanism of energy consumption structure optimization that could drive urban green development efficiency.The spatial spillover results revealed that the pilot

关 键 词：中国制造2025 制造业转型 绿色发展效率 多期双重差分模型 政策溢出 

分 类 号：F424[经济管理—产业经济]