WRF参数化方案与初始场对闽江流域 暴雨模拟的敏感性研究  

Sensitivity Study of WRF Parameterization Schemes and Initial Fields on Rainstorm Simulation in Minjiang River Basin

作　　者：林思诺 张茵驰 孙劭[3] 官晓军 江彩英 高路 LIN Sinuo;ZHANG Yinchi;SUN Shao;GUAN Xiaojun;JIANG Caiying;GAO Lu(Institute of Geography,College of Geographical Science,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou 350117,China;Fujian Provincial Engineering Research Center for Monitoring and Assessing Terrestrial Disasters,Fujian Normal University,Fuzhou 350117,China;National Climate Centre,Beijing 100081,China;Fujian Key Laboratory of Severe Weather,Fuzhou 350001,China;Nanping Meteorological Observatory,Nanping 353000,China;Wuyishan National Climatological Observatory,Wuyishan 354300,China)

机构地区：[1]福建师范大学地理研究所,福建福州350117 [2]福建省陆地灾害监测评估工程技术研究中心,福建福州350117 [3]国家气候中心,北京100081 [4]福建省灾害天气重点实验室,福建福州350001 [5]南平市气象局,福建南平353000 [6]武夷山国家气候观象台,福建武夷山354300

出　　处：《人民珠江》2023年第10期35-46,61,共13页Pearl River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(42271030);福建省科技厅杰出青年科学基金项目(2022J06018)。

摘　　要：数值模式作为目前最主要的天气预报手段之一,已经广泛应用于极端降雨等强天气过程的预警和预测。在实际预报业务中,数值模式受初始场、边界条件、参数化方案等影响,难以进行长时间精准预报。基于新一代中尺度数值天气预报模式WRF(The Weather Research and Forecasting Model),交叉组合16套微物理过程和积云对流参数化方案,对闽江流域2021年5月17—24日的一场连续性暴雨过程进行敏感性对比模拟。结果表明,WRF模式基本可以再现本次降雨过程的时空分布特征,但明显高估了暴雨中心的强度和范围,EXP9(Lin-NT组合)整体表现较优。对于初始场质量敏感性试验,基于最优参数化方案组合的模拟结果表明,ERA5(The Fifth-generation Atmospheric Reanalysis of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts)对各个量级降雨模拟效果均相对较好,与观测数据的时空特征最吻合,其次为GDAS/FNL(Global Data Assimilation System/Final Operational Global Analysis),而CFS(Climate Forecast System Operational Analysis)表现最差。可为提高极端降雨模拟和预报精度提供方法借鉴。As one of the most dominant weather forecasting tools,numerical models have been widely employed for early warning and prediction of strong weather processes such as extreme rainfalls.In practical forecasting operations,numerical models are affected by initial fields,boundary conditions,and parameterization schemes,which makes it difficult to conduct long-time accurate forecasts.Based on the new-generation mesoscale numerical weather forecasting model,i.e.,weather research and forecasting(WRF)model,16 sets of microphysical processes and cumulus convection parameterization schemes are cross-combined to simulate the sensitivity of a continuous rainstorm process in the Minjiang River Basin from May 17 to 24,2021.The results show that the WRF model can reproduce the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of this rainfall process,but it significantly overestimates the intensity and extent of the storm center,with the overall better performance of EXP9(Lin-NT combination).For the mass sensitivity test of initial fields,the simulation results based on the optimal combination of parameterization schemes reveal that the fifth-generation atmospheric reanalysis of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ERA5)has a sound effect for all magnitudes of rainfalls.Meanwhile,it best matches the spatio-temporal characteristics of the observed data,followed by global data assimilation system/final operational global analysis(GDAS/FNL),while climate forecast system operational analysis(CFS)is the worst.This study can provide methodological references for improving the accuracy of extreme rainfall simulation and forecasting.

关 键 词：WRF模式 暴雨 参数化方案 初始场 闽江流域 

分 类 号：P456.7[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]