基于Copula函数的西北江洪水遭遇分析  

Analysis of Floods in Xijiang River and Beijiang River Based on Copula Function

作　　者：任成均 REN Chengjun(Zhaoqing Branch,Guangdong Hydrology Bureau,Zhaoqing 526060,China)

机构地区：[1]广东省水文局肇庆水文分局,广东肇庆526060

出　　处：《人民珠江》2023年第10期149-156,共8页Pearl River

摘　　要：分析西、北江洪水遭遇情况对于流域水库错峰调节及珠江三角洲地区防洪减灾具有重要意义。为此,采用Gamma分布和Von Mises分布分别对洪水量级和年最大洪水发生时间进行拟合,利用Copula函数构建西、北江洪水的联合分布,对西、北江洪水遭遇的可能性进行分析。结果表明:西、北江同时发生大洪水的概率非常小,当北江石角站分别发生5、10、20、50、100、200年一遇的洪水时,西江高要站发生同频率洪水的概率分别为0.3450、0.2003、0.1085、0.0466、0.0237、0.0120;两江洪水在6月上旬遭遇概率最大,随着两江洪水量级的增大,遭遇风险随之减小,两江洪水6月上旬遭遇5年一遇的概率为1.32×10^(-3),遭遇200年一遇的概率仅为1.17×10^(-6)。It is of great significance to analyze the flood situation of the Xijiang River and Beijiang River for peak shifting regulation of reservoirs in the basin and flood control and disaster reduction in the Pearl River Delta.Therefore,Gamma distribution and Von Mises distribution are used to fit the flood magnitude and occurrence time of annual maximum flood,respectively.The Copula function is used to construct a joint distribution of floods in Xijiang River and Beijiang River,and the possibility of floods in Xijiang River and Beijiang River is analyzed.The results show that the probability of simultaneous occurrence of major floods in Xijiang River and Beijiang River is extremely small.When Shijiao Station in Beijiang River experiences floods at a level of 5,10,20,50,100,and 200 a,respectively,the probability of occurrence of floods with the same frequency in Gaoyao Station Xijiang River is 0.3450,0.2003,0.1085,0.0466,0.0237,and 0.0120,respectively.The probability of floods in the two rivers is the highest in early June.As the flood magnitude increases,the risk of flood occurrence decreases.The probability of floods at a level of 5 a in the two rivers in early June is 1.32×10^(-3),and that of floods at a level of 200 a is only 1.17×10^(-6).

关 键 词：COPULA函数 洪水遭遇 洪水量级 洪水发生时间 联合分布 

分 类 号：TV122[水利工程—水文学及水资源]