空间视角下中国城市人口增长的同群效应  

Peer Effects of Urban Population Growth in China from the Spatial Perspective

作　　者：杨晓军[1] YANG Xiao-jun(School of Economics,Zhongnan University of Economics and Law,Wuhan 430073,China)

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学经济学院,湖北武汉430073

出　　处：《人口与发展》2023年第5期27-38,共12页Population and Development

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“城市体系视角下人口增长的协同效应与空间格局优化研究”(22BRK018)。

摘　　要：将同群效应假说引入城市人口增长的空间特征分析,利用1990-2019年中国251个地级及以上城市面板数据,构建空间计量模型研究城市人口增长的同群效应及其作用机制。研究表明:地理、经济和行政相邻城市间人口增长具有显著的正向同群效应,且地理相邻城市间的表现尤为明显;城市人口增长的同群效应随着地理距离增加呈现先上升后下降趋势,也随着时间推移呈现逐渐下降态势;区域层面上,东部城市人口增长的同群效应最大,略高于中西部城市,远高于东北城市;城市规模层面上,大城市人口增长的同群效应最大,略高于中等城市,远高于小城市;相同规模城市会相互学习和借鉴人口增长经验,但人口规模较大的城市更容易成为模仿对象;城市间学习性模仿和竞争性模仿均会强化同群效应。This paper introduces the peer effects hypothesis into the spatial characteristics of ur-ban population growth.Using panel data of 251 cities at the prefectural and higher levels in Chi-na from 1990 to 2019,this paper constructs a spatial econometric model to explore peer effects of urban population growth and its mechanism.The results show that population growth of geo-graphical,economic and administrative neighboring cities have significant positive peer effects,especially in geographical neighboring cities.Peer effects of urban population growth show an upward and then downward trend as geographic distance increases,and show a gradual down-ward trend over time.At the regional level,peer effects of population growth in eastern cities are the largest,slightly higher than that of central and western cities,and much higher than that of northeastern cities.At the level of city size,peer effects of population growth in large cities are the largest,slightly higher than that of medium-sized cities and much higher than that of small cities.Cities of the same size will learn from each other and use for reference of population growth,but cities with larger population are more likely to be imitated.Both urban learning effect and competitive effect will strengthen peer effects.

关 键 词：人口增长 同群效应 城市 学习性模仿 竞争性模仿 

分 类 号：C922[社会学—人口学]