我国西部地区零售药店执业药师配备的灰色模型预测分析  

Grey model forecasting analysis of licensed pharmacist staffing in retail pharmacies in western China

作　　者：许龙 徐敢 叶桦[3] 朱文静 杨建伟 温瑞睿 张启均 XU Long;XU Gan;YE Hua;ZHU Wenjing;YANG Jianwei;WEN Ruirui;ZHANG Qijun(CertificationCenter for Licensed Pharmacist,National Medical Products Administration,Beijing 100061,China;School ofManagement,Beijing University of Chinese Medicine,Beijing 102488,China;School of Pharmacy,FudanUniversity,Shanghai 201203,China)

机构地区：[1]国家药品监督管理局执业药师资格认证中心,北京100061 [2]北京中医药大学管理学院,北京102488 [3]复旦大学药学院,上海201203

出　　处：《中国药房》2023年第20期2545-2549,共5页China Pharmacy

基　　金：国家食品药品监督管理总局人事司资助课题(No.O201502);中国药品监督管理研究会课题(No.BUCM-2023-KJ-GL-008)。

摘　　要：目的预测我国西部地区零售药店的执业药师配备发展趋势,为制定执业药师相关政策提供数据参考。方法基于2016-2022年西部地区零售药店与执业药师数据构建灰色模型,对西部地区2023-2026年期间零售药店与执业药师数量发展趋势进行预测分析。结果现阶段,陕西、广西和甘肃已经满足了执业药师与零售药店数量1∶1配备要求。按照现有趋势发展,内蒙古、重庆、云南、青海有望在2023-2026年期间满足执业药师与零售药店数量1∶1配备要求,四川和新疆也有望在未来较长一段时间内满足该要求,但贵州、西藏、宁夏离上述目标还有很大差距。结论西部地区部分省份在执业药师配备上与国家要求还存在差距,各地要因地制宜制定相关政策。已满足和即将满足执业药师配备要求的地区要继续从数量和质量上加强执业药师队伍建设;短期内无法满足该条件的地区在加强执业药师队伍建设的同时,更要控制好新开办零售药店的数量。OBJECTIVE To predict the development trends of licensed pharmacist staffing in retail pharmacies within the western China and provide reference for the formulation of policies related to licensed pharmacists.METHODS Based on the data of retail pharmacies and licensed pharmacists in the western China from 2016 to 2022,a grey model was constructed to analyze and predict the number development trends of retail pharmacies and licensed pharmacists in the western China from 2023 to 2026.RESULTS Currently,the 1∶1 staffing requirement for licensed pharmacists and retail pharmacies had been met in Shaanxi,Guangxi and Gansu.Based on current trends,Inner Mongolia,Chongqing,Yunnan,and Qinghai were expected to meet the 1∶1 staffing requirement for licensed pharmacists and retail pharmacies between 2023 and 2026.Sichuan and Xinjiang were also expected to meet this requirement in the future.However,there was still a significant gap in Guizhou,Xizang,and Ningxia towards achieving the above goals.CONCLUSIONS There is still a discrepancy between the deployment of licensed pharmacists and the national requirements in certain western provinces.Local authorities should formulate relevant policies according to local circumstances.Regions that have already met or will soon achieve the staffing requirement for licensed pharmacists should continue to enhance the quantity and quality of their licensed pharmacist workforce.In areas where meet this criterion in the short term is not feasible,it is necessary to strengthen the development of the licensed pharmacist workforce,and control the number of new retail pharmacies.

关 键 词：执业药师 零售药店 西部地区 灰色模型 预测 

分 类 号：R952[医药卫生—药学]